Garrett Shrader, QB, Syracuse vs. Boston College - Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (Friday Night)
While watching Syracuse lay down in front of a national TV audience against Virginia Tech last week, I couldn’t help but marvel at the lack of efficacy of the Syracuse offense, as the Orange have scored just 34 points over their last four games against Clemson/UNC/FSU/VT. Given those teams are more advanced than the Eagles, but BC’s weakness is their pass defense which ranks 116th in team performance and 124th in EPA/Play, while their run defense ranks 57th according to CFB Winning Edge’s analytics.
For his part Shrader is also terrible when navigating the pass rush, averaging a 29% pressure-to-sack rate which is the 5th worst mark among Power Five signal callers with 200+ dropbacks. Each sack taken siphons rushing yardage from college quarterbacks, and Shrader hasn’t been taking many designed runs since mauling Purdue to the tune of 25 totes and 195 rushing yards. Over his last four games Shrader hasn’t cleared 28 rushing yards and has taken a staggering 17 sacks in that span. I think BC’s defense can do enough to keep him Under 34.5 Rushing Yards. Shrader hasn’t cleared his 204.5 passing yards line in five of his last six as well, if you’re so inclined.
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon vs. Cal - Over 271.5 Passing Yards
Cal has really upped their offensive performance under much maligned OC Jake Spavital, with the Golden Bears ranking 10th in plays per second and averaging 32.5 points per game. Their run game has been the catalyst for the improved output, posting a 46% success rate (22nd) while charting in at 18th in rushing EPA. They should be able to keep Oregon in scoring-mode, as the Ducks allow a 39% rushing success rate (54th).
For his part, Nix has cleared 271.5 in every single game this year, with the lone exception of their 35-6 destruction of Utah last week in which he still completed 77% of his passes for 248 passing yards, just narrowly missing his Over 250.5 passing yardage prop. The Utes’ offense has been brutal, of course, but if Cal can just be respectable then Nix is going to light their porous pass defense that allows 8.8 yards per pass (125th) on fire. While I usually reserve my “Best Bets” for my NBC Sports Live YouTube Q&A show, The Nix Over 271.5 Passing Yards is a clear smash play and well worth the investment. He’s also 50/50 on the year against his 2.5 passing touchdowns line, which currently rests at +130 on DK.
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Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oklahoma at Oklahoma State - Over 250.5 Passing Yards
In Oklahoma’s first 4 Big 12 contests, Gabriel unleashed at least 38 passes in each of them. However, last week against Kansas the winds were indeed sweepin’ down the plains, as the song goes, which accounted for Gabriel throwing just 19 passes versus the Jayhawks. With his passing output literally cut in half, of course Gabriel went Under on his passing yardage despite 71 points being put on the board, as RB “Akira” Tawee Walker (obscure 90’s All Japan Pro Wrestling reference) was rode hard and put away wet. Tawee did everything but take a Burning Hammer in OU’s attempt to prevent the upset, to no avail.
Tomorrow the unassailable Weather App (ahem) is projecting 4-8 MPH winds with gusts up to 16 MPH in Stillwater, a very palatable level of wind. With OSU averaging 40.25 points per game over their current four-game Big 12 win streak, OU is going to have to gas it up in what should be another high scoring Bedlam send-off. I’m taking a Sledgehammer to the Over 250.5 Passing Yards on Dillon “Peter” Gabriel.
Nico Ragaini, WR, Iowa at Northwestern - Under 29.5 Receiving Yards
Iowa OC Brian Ferentz has taken many nepotism-related barbs over the last few years, deservedly so. But when you have a defense that ranks top-5 nationally year in, year out, it’s only natural for his father, HC Kirk Ferentz, to want to run the ball and protect his impenetrable defense. Last Week in a 12-10 loss to Minnesota, Iowa accounted for the season-ending injuries to tight ends Erick All and Luke Lachey by throwing seven passes each to Diante Vines and Nico Ragaini.
Of course that was against a Minnesota defensive front to a pathetic 11 yards on 28 carries, leaving “The Hefty Righty” Deacon Hill to fend for himself by completing 10-of-28 passes for 116 passing yards and an interception. This week Iowa faces a Northwestern team that has had far less success against the run than the Gophers, ranking 95th in total rushing EPA. With Iowa likely to be pounding the rock with their RB duo of Leshon Williams and Kaleb Johnson, I don’t think they will need to employ such a “heavy” pass script against the Wildcats. The Hawkeyes’ flanker hasn’t bested that line in his last seven games, only clearing it in the season opener against Utah State. A run-focused game plan would be a positive bellwether for Ragaini’s Under 29.5 Receiving Yardage prop, which i’m advocating you take before it drops to the 26.5 range.