All Lines Provided by BetMGM
#20 Kentucky vs. #1 Georgia (-14.5) | 47.5 - Opened (-24) | 51.5
This held steady at -23.5 from May 6th until the market reopened late-Saturday at -17.5 | 46.5. The side dropped to -16.5 Sunday AM where it hung until 2PM when it went to -14.5, briefly hitting -14 for about 5 minutes before bringing the hook back at -14.5 where it currently stands.
Georgia outlasted a pesky Auburn 27-20 (98% win expectancy) this week, but contrary to last year’s mauling run game that recorded 205 yards per game at a 5.5 YPC clip, Georgia only ran for 3.6 YPC and 107 yards vs. the Tigers last Saturday. While QB Carson Beck has shown to be a steady hand, UGA only scored 10 points on their first seven drives, spanning 44 minutes of game time until Daijun Edwards punched in a rushing TD to even the game up at 17-17 heading into the fourth quarter. While the Bulldogs turned things around by gaining 240 of their 420 total yards on their last three drives going TD-FG-TD, the game flow felt eerily similar to their 24-14 win over South Carolina where it was 17-14 heading into Q4.
Defensive svengali HC Kirby Smart gameplans to take away one aspect of their opponent’s offense and force them to try and beat Georgia one-dimensionally. They held Auburn to 88 passing yards while giving up 212 on the ground, forcing the Tigers to put together long, sustained drives to score. It was the inverse story against South Carolina who could only muster 53 yards on the ground and 309 passing at 6.1 yards per attempt.
They’re facing an undefeated Kentucky squad that just posted a 33-14 signature win over Florida (98% win expectancy), holding HC Billy Napier’s run-based offense to just 69 yards on 29 carries. Conversely, the Wildcats smothered Florida by running for a service-academy caliber 329 yards at a ridiculous 9.1 YPC, with Devin Leary going 9-19 for 69 yards and a TD. It’s no secret what HC Mark Stoops wants to do - run the ball down your throat, bleed the clock (54 plays per game = 131st) and protect their lockdown defense that allows just 4.35 yards per play (7th), 1.2 points per drive (16th) and 9th in EPA/Play.
My concern with UK is their schedule has been abnormally soft leading up until this point and they had demonstrable trouble with both Ball State (47% win expectancy) and FCS Eastern Kentucky (58% win exp.). It’s easy to see why this total dropped to 47.5, as both teams have imperfections that have yet to be exploited. Last year Georgia beat UK in a 16-6 rock fight where UGA ran for 247 yards, and I’ve seen little reason to think this game goes Over 47.5 points.
Alabama at Texas A&M (-2.5) | 49.5 - Opened at (-7.5) | 54.5 on 8/16
The Aggies have rebounded nicely after their Week 2 loss to Miami, relying on their top-10 rush defense to beat a flawed Arkansas team 34-22 while holding the Razorbacks to just 42 rushing yards on 39 carries. The previous week A&M held Auburn to 200 total yards (56 Pass Yards) while delivering a sound 27-10 beating (100% win exp.) despite losing their five-star QB Connor Weigman in the contest. Since taking over, backup QB Max Johnson has been competent, completing 24-of-39 passes for 333 pass yards and a 4-to-1 ratio. A former starter for both LSU and Texas A&M, Johnson is an experienced signal caller who has shown to be a capable field general when called upon. However I can’t get away from his troubling 23% pressure-to-sack rate over the last two seasons. If Johnson can’t improve his pocket awareness, it’s going to be a long day for the Aggies against Alabama’s ferocious pass rush who posted 16 pressures in 33 dropbacks last week against Mississippi State.
On the other side Alabama has been on the warpath post-Texas, running roughshod over both Mississippi schools, holding a potent Ole Miss offense to 10 points, 301 total yards and 3-of-14 on third-down conversions. However they are a throwback to Alabama teams of yesteryear with QB Jalen Milroe going 10-of-12 for 164 passing yards while rushing 43 times for 193 yards and 4.5 YPC vs. MSU last weekend. Don’t be fooled by Bama’s brand name either, as “The Death Star” is no longer fully operational with the Tide’s offense ranking 54th in yards per play, 51st in success rate and 62nd EPA/Play. That being said, their defense is still at the height of it’s powers allowing 14 PPG (13th), 4.4 yards per play (9th) and a 32% success rate (11th).
Can Alabama’s offensive line hold off Texas A&M’s pass rush? Even Mississippi State pressured Milroe nine times on just 21 dropbacks, scrambling five times and taking sacks on the other four. I think this game could go either way considering the instability at the QB position on both sides, but I simply do not see a shootout in the cards. Give me the Under 49.5 between a pair of stalwarts defensive units.
Washington State (+3.5) @ UCLA | 59.5 - Opened Wazzu (-1.5) | 66.5
The first lines dropped 9:30 AM Sunday morning with Washington State actually favored by (-1.5) on the road in Pasadena before quickly crossing over to (+2.5) for a few hours, flirting with (+3) for a few hours until it hopped over to the current (+3.5).
HC Chip Kelly’s UCLA is still trying to sprint their way down the field with blinding speed, ranking 12th in pace. However losing DTR/Charbonnet/Bobo along with NFL draftee offensive linemen Antonio Mafi and Jon Gaines is showing its impact, as the Bruins rank 44th in EPA/Play, 67th in success rate and 68th in points per drive for a paltry 23 points per game average (82nd).
Somewhat incredibly, it’s been the UCLA defense that has carried the water for the whole team as they get five-star uber-prospect freshman QB Dante Moore comfortable with the college game. They’re currently allowing just 12.3 PPG (7th), 3.9 yards per play (2nd) and 5th in EPA/Play, which are the best defensive numbers of the HC Kelly era by a considerable margin. Which makes me think the other show is about to drop, as they haven’t played anyone remotely close to Wazzu’s offensive potency, beating CCU, San Diego State and FCS NC Central, while losing with a 5% win expectancy to a Utah team with a barely serviceable passer in Nate Johnson 14-7, and rushing for a pitiful 9 yards on 32 carries against the Utes.
Now they face a surging Wazzu offense that is throwing heat, averaging 534 yards and 40 points per game while ranking 15th in yards per pass attempt (9.6), 15th in success rate (50%) and 51st in pace. They beat Wisconsin for the second year in a row with an 81% win expectancy and convincingly took care of top-20 ranked Oregon State (92%). New OC Ben Arbuckle has imported his lethal Western Kentucky offense which has resurrected the air raid ways of Wazzu following the disappointing OC tenure of Eric Morris (26 PPG/361 YPG). Where UCLA has a potential edge is attacking the soft underbelly of WSU’s interior line, as the Cougars rank 71st in overall rushing performance.
We don’t know who this UCLA team is yet, and they’re facing an intimidating passing attack that is going to test the UCLA secondary that allowed a ghastly 273 passing yards per game in 2022. I’m borderline offended that Wazzu is getting 3.5 points, even on the road. Give me the Cougars and +3.5 points.
Other Notable Line Moves:
Texas at Oklahoma (+5.5) | 59.5 - Opened (+6.5) | 68.5
This game total was listed at 68.5 from May thru 9/24 when the lookahead markets reopened at (+4.5) | 64.5, with those lines remaining constant throughout last week. It reopened Sunday morning at (+6.5) | 62.5 before plummeting to (+4.5) | 58.5 by the end of day. High profile games with passionate fanbases like this tend to toggle the game line rapidly, leaving arbitrage opportunities if they skew too far. As it stands, you could have easily picked up a 2-point middle with little effort given the current market volatility.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State (+10.5) | 55.5 - Opened (+7) | 53.5
Maryland vs. Ohio State (-18.5) | 55.5 - Opened (-21) | 58.5
LSU vs. Missouri (+6.5) | 63.5 - Opened (+5.5) | 58.5
Wake Forest vs. Clemson (-20.5) | 52.5 - Opened (-14.5) | 60.5
Colorado vs. Arizona State (+4.5) | 60.5 - Opened (+3.5) | 63.5
Michigan vs. Minnesota (-20.5) | 47.5 - Opened (+16.5) | 45.5
Notre Dame vs. Louisville (+6.5) | 51.5 - Opened (+6.5) | 56.5
BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Current)
- Florida State +900 to +650
- Ohio State +900 to +650
- Texas +900 to +750
- Penn State +1600 to +1000
- Alabama +5000 to +2000
Highest Ticket%
- Michigan 13.3%
- Colorado 10.5%
- Ohio State 9.3%
Highest Handle%
- Alabama 33.0%
- Colorado 10.6%
- Michigan 10.4%
Biggest Liability
- Colorado
- Alabama
- USC
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
- Caleb Williams +500, +175
- Michael Penix Jr. +1600, +450
- Shedeur Sanders +12500, +10000
- Travis Hunter +15000, off the board (injury)
Highest Ticket%
- Shedeur Sanders 19.6%
- Travis Hunter 15.9%
- Caleb Williams 9.2%
Highest Handle%
- Shedeur Sanders 18.6%
- Caleb Williams 17.5%
- Travis Hunter 12.1%