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149th Open: A Historic Sunday in Store at Royal St. George’s

Collin Morikawa

Collin Morikawa

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

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Two men have separated themselves on the leaderboard heading into the final round of the 149th Open. Both vying to add to their major championship resume, Louis Oosthuizen and Collin Morikawa will strive to pen yet another chapter of their own in golf’s history book.

We’ll begin with Morikawa as he will attempt to become the first man to ever win two different majors in his championship debuts. Sitting one-stroke behind Oosthuizen at 11-under, he will look to play spoiler, a role that has proven to be fruitful in recent memory.

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At one point on the back-nine, Morikawa sat four-strokes off the lead and looked almost to be an afterthought. But as we have seen numerous times from the 24-year-old, his resiliency took over. Playing his final five-holes in 2-under, Morikawa leaned on his world class iron-play to provide birdie opportunity after birdie opportunity.

While Morikawa began to find his footing, Oosthuizen stumbled in the middle part of the back-nine. After turning in 2-under 33, which was about as stress-free as nine holes could possibly be, Oosthuizen dropped back to even-par for the day through 15.

A birdie on the short par-3 16th gave Oosthuizen a one-stroke edge over Morikawa. Despite the well-documented shortcomings, this is the first time since the 2010 Open that he’ll have the solo lead at the 54-hole mark. Will that one-stroke make the ultimate difference? From playoff losses to late-round heartbreak, that single shot may be the deciding factor between Oosthuizen’s second claret jug or Oosthuizen’s seventh runner-up finish in a major championship.

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And then there’s Jordan Spieth, who many were high on at the beginning of week. Four years removed from the rollercoaster of a final round at Royal Birkdale, some may argue his game was tailormade for the links setting. Sitting three-strokes behind Oosthuizen heading into tomorrow, Spieth will need tighten up his game if he expects to claim his fourth major title.

Standing on the 11th tee at 4-under for the day, Spieth limped home. Not only did he make bogeys on the long par-3 11th and short par-4 17th, but he wasn’t able to capitalize on any of the back-nine scoring opportunities. Scrambling for par on the 12th, failing to get up-and-down on the 14th, and a pair of ugly bogeys on the 17th and 18th, the 2017 Champion Golfer of the Year may have squashed his chances.

The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook are in agreement that if not one of the two in the final pair, Spieth is the man to raise the claret jug. At +500, Spieth is third on the odds board, behind the favorite, Oosthuizen at +150 and Morikawa +200.


Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):

+150: Louis Oosthuizen

+200: Collin Morikawa

+500: Jordan Spieth

+1700: Jon Rahm

+2000: Scottie Scheffler

+2500: Corey Conners


Round 4 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):

Jon Rahm (+1700 to win):

Having resisted the temptation of adding an outright selection to our card, it’s finally time for us to do so. While the eventual victor most likely comes out of the final pairing, with my lean towards Morikawa, neither of their odds are attractive to me. With Spieth in our back pocket, we’ll side with Rahm at odds that are more than double his pre-tournament number.

I loved what he had to say in his post-round interview, as is the case most times. Admittingly, Rahm said he will play aggressive tomorrow, firing at pins he may not normally go at, putting a touch more pace on putts, etc.

Very much a boom-or-bust methodology in which to attack Royal St. George’s, this will likely go one of two ways. The world’s best (sorry Dustin Johnson) will either give himself a great opportunity to claim his second major in a row or he’ll burn out quickly and capture a respectable top-10 finish.

That being said, there’s no other player I’d rather go to the well with. His tee-to-green game has been exquisite for months and maybe the final round of a major championship is what it takes for him to find some form on the greens. It’s a tall mountain to climb, coming from five-strokes behind, but if there’s a man to do it, it is indeed Rahm.

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