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Bryson DeChambeau’s Monday morning withdrawal from the Arnold Palmer Invitational was an ominous start to the week for American golfers. Remove DeChambeau, the colorful Matt Every, and proverbial G.O.A.T. Tiger Woods and no player flying Old Glory next to their name has finished atop the leaderboard at Bay Hill Club & Lodge since Kenny Perry in 2005.
There is no rhyme or reason for this oddity – outside of Woods’ dominance – as the field strength has fluctuated throughout the years as most do. In fact, after a slight downturn in quality following the passing of The King, a number of the world’s best are making their return to the Orlando area once again.
A trio of confidants from the European Ryder Cup Team headline the odds board at PointsBet Sportsbook. As expected, it is world No. 1 Jon Rahm (+850) leading the way with Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Viktor Hovland (+1600) following closely behind.
It would not be a Sepp Straka (+8000) size surprise if any of the three proved victorious, given not only their status, but the caliber of recent winners at Bay Hill. In addition to DeChambeau and McIlroy, major champions Francesco Molinari and Jason Day (+6000) have come through on this Par-72. And while not major champions (yet), Tyrrell Hatton (+3000) and Marc Leishman (+3500) have also slipped into the slim fitting cardigan by week’s end.
Between the need for an all-around game, consistency from 200+ yards, and an even-keel temperament – excluding Hatton and Every – this string of top-notch champions has a high likelihood of continuing on this nearly 7,500-yard golf course.
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When discussing those who possess the necessary disposition, there are a number of directions one could look, but I would be remiss to not begin this week’s selections with Sungjae Im (+3000). About as expressionless as they come, I was pleasantly surprised when I saw the South Koren open at this price.
Perhaps still reeling from his missed cut at last week’s Honda Classic, I am more than willing to forgive the 23-year-old for an opening round of 4-over 74. Looking more like himself on Friday en route to an even-par 70, I expect Im to recapture his early season form this week.
As before his trip to PGA National, the world No. 24 was putting together quite a memorable 2021-22 campaign. A winner last fall at the Shriners Children’s Open, Im was fantastic during the west coast swing, collecting finishes of T-8 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, T-11 at The American Express, and T-6 at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Strong in both Hawaii and California, it is a welcomed sight for a man who normally peaks in Florida. Top-5 in this field in Stroke Gained: Total in the Sunshine State over the last 40 rounds – according to our NBC Sports EDGE+ Driver Tool – Im has done plenty of damage on this Dick Wilson design. A podium finisher in back-to-back years in 2019 and 2020, Im collected another paycheck last season with a T-21 result.
Playing him at about this number in a stronger field at a venue less conducive to his game, I cannot say enough has changed in the month since the Farmers Insurance Open. Alongside two players in Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2500) and Will Zalatoris (+3000) who have yet to win on the PGA Tour, Im is mispriced as he should go well at the API.
Im is hardly the only player who could continue this stretch of European/International dominance at Bay Hill as the next range is littered with worthy candidates. Between Adam Scott (+3500), Paul Casey (+4000), Seamus Power (+5000), and Tommy Fleetwood (+5000), there is some intrigue, but none I could stomach.
Instead, it is another elder statesman in Sergio Garcia (+6600) who gets the nod. A perfect 7-for-7 at Bay Hill from 2004 to 2012, the last time we saw the Spaniard at Arnie’s Place was in 2013 when he proceeded to climb up into a tree, hit his ball, injure himself, and withdraw.
Now nearly a decade removed, the 42-year-old arrives having made five consecutive cuts, two of which included a T-7 at the WWT Championship and a T-12 at the Dubai Desert Classic. Still considered one of the best drivers in the game, a property where DeChambeau, McIlroy, and Day have found success should be right up his alley.
Potentially taking a page out of Hatton’s playbook of giving the bird and shotgun motion (with his putter) to the lake on the par-4 11th, the Ryder Cup stalwart does not necessarily have the temper in check, but his play in Florida certainly is.
With past strong showings at TPC Sawgrass, Trump National Doral, and the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, Garcia is a player I tend to favor in more difficult conditions. Ranking inside the top-10 in this field in bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds, if the putter can travel from Riviera to Bay Hill, so should his name up the API leaderboard.
He will not be alone in our prayers to the man upstairs when it comes to connecting on the greens as Corey Conners (+7000) possesses a somewhat similar game. Fantastic in the ball-striking department, the Canadian was featured in our WM Phoenix Open preview to no avail.
Struggling with his irons, these woes carried to the Genesis Invitational where he missed his third cut of the California swing. Convincing myself this yet another buy low opportunity for the Presidents Cup hopeful, Bay Hill should be ripe for a Conners bounce back.
In the thick of it with DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, and Lee Westwood (+10000) last season, Conners eventually finished in solo third-place. Ranking 13th in SG: Putting, he found a nice comfort zone on the greens of Bay Hill and again proved Bermudagrass is the putting surface he should be targeted on.
Conners was the model of consistency last season having made 11 cuts in a row at one point. However, this is not necessarily the way in which one wins golf tournament as we have seen from Rahm since his U.S. Open victory. With this in mind, volatility, while often painted in a bad light, is something worthy of wagering on.
Some who perform little-to-no leg work will tell you Matthew Wolff (+10000) and Patrick Reed (+10000) have “value” in their prices given their resumes. I am willing to give a pass on Reed most weeks, but the 2022 version of Captain America is far from just that of a year ago.
As for Wolff, the young phenom has not won in *checks notes* nearly three years and continues to get lapped by his counterparts in Hovland and Collin Morikawa. Still, there is plenty of time to make up ground for the 22-year-old, but I would not count on him doing so at Bay Hill.
The young 20-somethings are slowly but surely taking over the game and one routinely forgotten about given the length of his tenure on Tour is Si Woo Kim (+13000). Now 26-years-old, the South Korean has long been known for the volatility in his game.
Yet in a rare turn of events, Kim has been able to find some stability in the 2021-22 season. Connecting on 10-of-11 cuts thus far, he has collected four top-11 finishes thanks in part to his play off-the-tee.
Through a combination of strength and accuracy, Kim has now gained strokes off-the-tee in seven consecutive measured starts. Mixing in some streaky iron play and his typical, reliable around-the-green prowess and it appears the Olympian is on the cusp of another title run.
While it has yet to work out at Bay Hill for Kim, most of those poor performances were strictly due to his putter. Losing more than four-strokes on the greens in his first four API appearances, he turned the corner in 2020 and thus gives me enough confidence to suggest he will piece it all together.
Which is exactly what Martin Laird (+16000) accomplished in 2011 when he became the first European to win the API. Rising to world No. 21 at the time, the Scotsman is now more than a decade removed from the biggest victory of his career.
Turning back the clocks last season at the Shriners Children’s Open, the 39-year-old was one of many to find the fountain of youth. Perhaps discovering it again, Laird has begun 2022 striking the ball in a beautiful manner.
With three top-22 finishes to his name already this season, he has yet to get the entirety of his game to cooperate for a full week. Posting positive short-game metrics in 6-of-11 showings at Bay Hill, the price on Laird is one I found more than fair.
Our selections have one thing in common and that is their ability from off-the-tee. Unable to look past some of the previous winners and their skillsets, Taylor Pendrith (+25000) appears to be the Canadian budget version of DeChambeau.
Plenty long off-the-tee, the PGA Tour rookie has shown flashes of what he is capable of on the greens. While the level of consistency is not quite there, finishing in a tie for 25th at the Honda Classic in his tournament debut caught my attention.
More than impressive, I understand this will be a big ask for the 54-hole leader from the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. However, having posted more than +4.40 SG: Tee-to-Green in 3-of-4 starts, perhaps Pendrith can follow in the footsteps of Cameron Young (+6600) at the Genesis Invitational and play the role of little known rookie who is not afraid of the weekend spotlight.
Outright Selections:
Sungjae Im +3000 at Caesars (1.10 units)
Sergio Garcia +6600 at Bet365 (0.50 units)
Corey Conners +7000 at DraftKings (0.47 units)
Si Woo Kim +13000 at DraftKings (0.25 units)
Martin Laird +16000 at FanDuel (0.21 units)
Taylor Pendrith +25000 at DraftKings (0.13 units)
Outrights YTD: +79.69 units, +372.18%
Total YTD: +62.20 units, +102.77%
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