Birdies, birdies, and more birdies. That just about sums up Round 1 of the AT&T Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch had no defense for the world’s best as players took advantage of the soft conditions and preferred lies. With a field scoring average of just under 69, those who stalled on Thursday will most likely need to go low on Friday just to make the cut.
One of those players in particular is Brooks Koepka. Coming off a month hiatus after a surprising appearance at The Masters, Koepka struggled. He didn’t look like himself for most of the day as he limped his way to a first-round 1-under 71. He’ll need to improve on that number drastically if he wants to make his way into the weekend before heading to Kiawah Island for the PGA Championship.
Another player who struggled (relatively) was Bryson DeChambeau. The Dallas-resident was unable to take full advantage of his distance as Dechambeau played the par-5’s in only 1-under par. In total, it was a round of 3-under 69 for the U.S. Open champion as he still has work to do in order to see the weekend.
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It wasn’t all bad news for the headliners as the story of the day came from Dallas-native and fan-favorite Jordan Spieth. He picked up right where he left off and put himself in contention immediately. Playing for the first time since The Masters, due to COVID-19, Spieth was his usual self. Even when in trouble, Spieth summoned recovery shots that we have grown accustomed to seeing throughout his career. He’ll have the hometown crowd behind him the rest of the way as he co-leads after a round of 9-under 63.
As you would imagine, the oddsmaker at PointsBet Sportsbook have Spieth as the favorite to win as he is currently listed at +275. On the other hand, his co-leader, J.J. Spaun, sits at +6600 despite sharing the top spot on the leaderboard with Spieth. With the cut-line having the potential to reach 7 or 8-under par, I’ll forgo adding a live outright before the weekend. Instead, we’ll focus on a couple three-balls that I believe provide value.
Updated Odds (via PointsBet):
+275: Jordan Spieth
+1500: Sam Burns
+1600: Aaron Wise
+1800: Jon Rahm
+2000: Si Woo Kim
+2200: Bryson DeChambeau, Marc Leishman, Scottie Scheffler, Sergio Garcia
+3000: Charl Schwartzel
+4000: Alex Noren, Charles Howell III, Hideki Matsuyama
+5000: Brandt Snedeker, Doc Redman, Jhonattan Vegas, Matt Kuchar, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Rickie Fowler
Round 2 Plays:
Ryan Palmer (+113) over Harris English and Nate Lashley
Coming into the week, Palmer attracted a bit of attention for a variety of reasons. One of which was his familiarity with TPC Craig Ranch. Palmer understood that his ball-striking would allow him to be competitive at this week’s Byron Nelson. After Round 1, it’s safe to say that Palmer’s hypothesis was correct as he currently sits at 5-under par.
However, there’s another part to the equation and that is Palmer’s putting. Despite gaining north of three-strokes tee-to-green, Palmer left plenty of shots out there on Thursday. The putter disappointed the Texan as he lost nearly 1.5 strokes on the greens alone. I would expect that to improve heading into tomorrow’s second round.
While Palmer was poor with his putter, English and Lashley were poor throughout their bags. Both lost total strokes to the field as indicated by their scores of 2-under and 1-under. There isn’t anything telling me that they’ll figure it out on Friday and if that proves to be true, Palmer should make easy work of the two.
Jason Day (+154) over Charles Howell III and Patton Kizzire
This one may cause some trepidation, but Day has to figure out the flat stick eventually. There’s no better time than tomorrow as he will likely need a low round just to make it to the weekend. A first-round 2-under 69 leaves Day five-strokes back of the projected cut-line. It wasn’t his ball-striking’s fault as Day gained nearly 1.5 strokes tee-to-green on Thursday.
Unfortunately for Day, he also lost about 2.5 strokes on the greens. His counterparts on the other hand did most of their damage on and around the greens. While Kizzire gained nearly 2.5 strokes on and around the greens, Howell gained five in the same categories.
Both failed to strike the ball well on Thursday and if that is the case in Round 2, I can’t imagine their short-games holding up. A positive day of putting should do the trick for Day, but knowing his ball-striking was far superior in the first-round is enough reason to back the slight underdog.
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