Different day, same story, as players continued to take advantage of a gettable TPC Craig Ranch. Competitors will need to keep their foot on the gas pedal heading into the weekend as a winning score in the mid 20-under range is all but certain. Not all will have the opportunity to make more birdies as the likes of Brooks Koepka, Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Jason Day will all be taking an early flight to Kiawah Island for next week’s PGA Championship.
While they were unable to get things going in Dallas, others were, in particular, Sam Burns. The 24-year-old and recent winner of the Valspar Championship was on fire Friday afternoon. After turning in 4-under, Burns reeled off four consecutive birdies in the middle of his back-nine. He’d tack on birdies on both the 17th and 18th holes to come home in 10-under 62 for the day. In total, Burns is 17-under and holds his fifth 36-hole lead of the season going into the weekend.
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As for his pursuers, there are a number of them, but the closest is Alexander Noren of Sweden. Noren posted an 8-under 64 on Friday and sits only two-strokes back of Burns at 15-under. The Swede gained nearly five-strokes on and around the greens in Round 2 and will need to keep the flat stick going if he wants to catch Burns.
Overnight leader, Jordan Spieth, stalled Friday morning due to an uncooperative putter. Spieth struck the ball beautifully, but lost more than a stroke on the putting surface. At 11-under, he hardly shot himself out of the tournament, but he will need to be near perfect from here on out.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have Burns as the favorite heading into Round 3. He sits at +165 with Noren close behind at +600. As for the pre-tournament favorites, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, they both are listed at +4000 and +8000 respectively.
Updated Odds (via PointsBet):
+165: Sam Burns
+600: Alexander Noren
+1000: Jordan Spieth
+1200: K.H. Lee
+1600: Doc Redman
+2500: Charl Schwartzel
+2800: Matt Kuchar
+3300: Carlos Ortiz
+4000: Bryson DeChambeau, J.J. Spaun, Marc Leishman, Patton Kizzire
+5000: Brandt Snedeker, Sebastian Munoz
Round 3 Plays:
Jordan Spieth (+1000 to win):
The first question that should be answered is, how far back is too far back? Burns officially getting the monkey off his back with his win in Tampa a few weeks ago makes him all the more dangerous. He’s filled with confidence, knows he can win this tournament, and a weekend collapse isn’t likely to occur.
I would reckon that six-strokes should be the cut-off point going into Round 3. With a slew of players to select from, you could go a number of ways, but I’ll be going with Spieth as his current price tag isn’t too far removed from his pre-tournament odds.
He is currently listed at +1000 to win outright, which seems a bit short being six-strokes back, but we’ve seen before that Saturdays are for Spieth. The irons have been fantastic the first two days and if not for a poor putting performance on Friday, he’d be even closer to Burns. He’ll likely need something similar to his Round 3 performance at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but if the putter returns to form, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
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