The AT&T Byron Nelson is playing the role of being a tune-up event ahead of the PGA Championship.
The host course is TPC Craig Ranch which we saw in 2021 and 2022 as well.
When looking at past contenders, there is one stat that is catching my eye. Bogey avoidance. Looking at top-15 finishers at TPC Craig Ranch, 78 percent of them were arriving with positive bogey avoidance numbers in the 24 lead-up rounds. That is the highest percentage of any stat I look at. I will keep that in mind as I take a look at the betting board. Here are a few plays that caught my eye.
Maverick McNealy - Top-30 Finish (+125)
The Stanford standout was slowed by an injury early in 2023 but he’s earned a paycheck in three of the four events played since returning to action.
Circling back to bogey avoidance that I talked about above, McNealy has carded fewer bogeys than the field in 79% of his last 24 rounds played which is the third-best ratio in the entire field behind just Scottie Scheffler and Jason Day.
His game is simmering and this week’s course yields a lot of birdies so he should be able to finally pop again in the birdie department. If he keeps bogeys away like he has been doing, then it’ll be hard for him not to contend.
McNealy twirled a T32 here last year and isn’t asking too much to go two spots higher.
Adam Scott - Top-20 Finish (+140)
The Aussie has played a relatively light schedule over the course of his career but he tends to show up frequently in the Lone Star State.
Scott has the Texas Slam on his resume, winning the Houston Open, Byron Nelson, Colonial, and Valero Texas Open.
He’s been settling for a lot of ho-hum cuts made but arrives fresh off a T5 at Quail Hollow Club which could be the spark that he needs to refill his confidence-in-contention tank.
Last week wasn’t the first hint at a return to contending as he has now carded fewer bogeys than the field in 13 of his last 16 rounds, dating back to THE PLAYERS.
Scott landed a T32 at TPC Craig Ranch last year and I like his chances of building on his Wells Fargo finish to produce a similar result this week.
