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The PGA Tour heads to its offseason making way for the BMW PGA Championship to take center stage this week in England. The flagship event and an integral role in the Rolex Series, this week at Wentworth Club is typically one of the most anticipated events on the European golfing calendar each year.
With recent champions such as Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Francesco Molinari, and Alex Noren, European’s finest have shown to play their best in Surrey, England. Not only will this week take form of a Rolex Series event, but also marks the last qualifying event for the European Ryder Cup Team. That’ll surely put added pressure upon the shoulders of Bernd Wiesberger, Robert MacIntyre, and others as they vie for possible consideration.
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Yet in order to effectively navigate Wentworth, we can examine previous winners and extrapolate what defines success on this par-72. Measuring nearly 7,300 yards, each of the past four winners have finished either first or second in par-4 scoring for the week. Combined with each ranking inside the top-three in bogeys per round and a clearer picture begins to emerge.
In what will likely turn into a tee-to-green contest, I’ll put a touch more weight towards around-the-green play for our first-round selections. Hatton, Molinari, and Noren had excellent weeks with their short-games en route to victory, so we won’t try to reinvent the wheel, and hope it translates to Round 1 success as well.
The odds makers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of the BMW PGA Championship with tournament-favorite, Viktor Hovland leading the way at +1800. Coming off a strong week in Atlanta, where an uncooperative putter was his downfall, the Norwegian has a great opportunity to continue the trend of elite players winning this championship.
With some wind and possible rain in the forecast, it appears those teeing off in the morning may hold a slight edge. We won’t completely lock into the morning wave, but it will house the majority of our first-round selections.
Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+1800: Viktor Hovland
+2800: Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton
+3300: Alex Noren, Matthew Fitzpatrick
+4000: Adam Scott, Billy Horschel
+5000: Bernd Wiesberger, Branden Grace, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Guido Migliozzi, Henrik Stenson, Ian Poulter, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Hojgaard, Robert MacIntyre
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Mikko Korhonen (+6600):
Korhonen won’t wow you on paper, but he appears to be on the cusp of playing some of his very best golf. The two-time winner on the European Tour is coming off a top-10 finish last week in Italy, marking his second such result in his last four tournaments, as he finished in solo third at the Cazoo Open in late July.
Breaking par in 10 of his last 14 rounds, I fancy the Finn’s chances to start fast at Wentworth. Ranking second in bogeys per round and 12th in par-4 scoring, I am hopeful he can plot his way through the initial 18-holes. Hardly finding trouble, it’s no surprise given his bogey figures he is accurate off-the-tee and finds greens in regulation on, well, a regular basis ranking inside the top-20 on the European Tour in both.
While a 73-72 showing was less than ideal in last year’s BMW PGA Championship, the 41-year-old did make the cut in his two previous efforts. Shooting par or better in seven of those eight rounds, just a slight uptick from around-the-green could be enough to propel him to something in the mid-60’s on Thursday.
Sam Horsfield (+8000):
There’s something brewing with players named Sam in the first-round, whether here or across the pond. With Sam Burns nowhere to be found this week, we’ll go with another young, budding star in Horsfield. The Englishman has been terrific as of late with finishes of T-6, T-23, and T-15 in his last four outings on the European Tour.
An ingredient in his recent success has been his play in the first-round as the 24-year-old opened with rounds of 67-68-69 in those tournaments. The most recent of which occurred last week at the Italian Open where he also finished strong with a final round 5-under 66, sandwiching an even-par effort in the middle rounds.
Ranking second in Strokes Gained: Approach in Italy, the iron-play should be able to make the short trip back to his home country. If it does, he has carved a nice level of comfort around Wentworth with finishes of T-15 in 2018 and T-31 in 2019.
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Rafa Cabrera-Bello (+9000):
Coming off an unfortunate Korn Ferry Tour Finals, the Spaniard likely comes to Wentworth with low spirits having failed to retain his PGA Tour status. Knowing he has taken a liking to Wentworth in the past, I believe he will arrive to the first-tee on Thursday with a go for broke mentality, itching to fire at pins, give putts a good go, and play a tad more aggressive than usual.
Playing in this tournament only three times in the last five editions, Cabrera-Bello has had strong showings when he decides to come to Surrey. Finishing in a tie for sixth in 2019, the three-time winner on the European Tour broke par in each of his rounds.
The year before, he was nearly identical as he shot par or better each day in 2018 en route to a tie for eighth. With a scoring average of sub-70 at Wentworth since 2016, I am willing to chance Cabrera-Bello’s first-round prospects on course history alone as the current form leaves plenty to desire.
Victor Dubuisson (+10000):
The Frenchman has played sparingly this summer, but when he decides to fully commit to a tournament, he has fared decent enough. Coming off a strong showing in Italy where he finished in a tie for 27th, I am willing to wager he carries some momentum into Wentworth. Having started on the right foot with rounds of 70-68, the three-time European Tour winner faded over the weekend with back-to-back rounds of 71.
Finding 75.00 percent of the greens in regulation at the Marco Simone Golf & Country Club, ball-striking was hardly the issue for Dubuisson. Ranking 22nd in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in driving accuracy, he’ll simply need to be better with the flat-stick for our Round 1 considerations.
Hoping for a similarly hot start this week, Dubuisson has only played the BMW PGA Championship three-times since 2016. Missing the cut in said year, he was actually inside the top-10 after the first-round before a poor Friday was his eventually undoing. Since then, he has made the cut in both appearances, capturing finishes of T-24 in 2017 and T-32 last October.
Marcus Kinhult (+12500):
It’s been a really poor 2020-2021 campaign for the 25-year-old, but if there was ever a time or place for him to turn it around it is this week at Wentworth. Coming off a missed cut at the Italian Open it wasn’t all bad as he gained strokes on and around-the-greens in two rounds. Ranking 14th in driving accuracy and 34th in par-4 scoring, I am sure it seems that I am grasping at straws, which I may very well be doing.
Yet I believe it is with good reason as the Swede has been able to find form out of thin air in his three previous starts in Surrey. Debuting in 2018, Kinhult captured a tie for 12th and added a similar finish last October with a tie for 10th.
Despite the strong play at Wentworth, he has started slow in each of his appearances, carding rounds of 74-70-72. Coincidentally, Thursdays appear to be the one round these days where he can find a semblance of iron-play, posting a scoring average of 70 in his last five first-rounds. While it isn’t much, Kinhult has shot par or better in 10 of his 12 rounds at Wentworth and is worth a flier at this number.
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