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Returning to Memorial Park Golf Course for the second consecutive year, 132 players are set to tee it up in the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open. A difficult test by Tour’s standards, this par-70 stretches north of 7,400 yards and yielded a winning score of just 13-under last season.
Despite the preconceived notion that distance is required – it certainly helps, don’t get me wrong – it was a wily veteran in Brandt Snedeker who shot out to the early first-round lead last year. Courtesy of a 5-under 65, the former FedEx Cup Champion cleared the rest of the field by two-strokes that fateful Thursday.
A solid effort on paper was made even more impressive when diving into what exactly led to his success. Making birdie on each par-5 and a single bogey on the difficult par-4 14th, the 40-year-old hit only 53.85 percent of his fairways.
Never the longest and certainly not the straightest that day, Snedeker compensated for his lackluster performance off-the-tee with +2.62 Strokes Gained: Approach, +3.28 SG: Around-the-Green, and +1.34 SG: Putting. While it was enough for the round of the day, players would become more comfortable on Memorial Park as the week progressed.
As evidenced by final round scores of 7-under 63 from Hideki Matsuyama, Mackenzie Hughes, and Talor Gooch. Likely the neighborhood our first-round selections will need to find themselves in, players will not only have to overcome the course, but also the Texas winds.
Forever changing and throwing us for a loop, as of now, it appears the morning wave will have a slight edge. Combine this with some potential Wednesday night rains and a soft course with relatively calm conditions could be presented to those who play in Thursday’s morning hours.
Our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of the Houston Open with a trio of young studs sitting at the top at +2500. Last week’s first-round leader, Matthew Wolff, checks in at +5000 as he looks to continue the strong start to his season.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2500: Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler
+3000: Cameron Smith, Tony Finau
+3300: Brooks Koepka, Joaquin Niemann, Talor Gooch
+4000: Aaron Wise, Adam Scott, Maverick McNealy, Patrick Reed, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton
+5000: Branden Grace, Cameron Tringale, Chad Ramey, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jason Kokrak, Marc Leishman, Matthew Wolff
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Denny McCarthy (+8000)
I have been keeping my eye on McCarthy for quite some time and believe this week at Memorial Park could be the ideal spot to target him in the first round. Coming off a T-15 finish at Mayakoba, the 28-year-old carded four rounds in the 60’s, including a 4-under 67 in Round 1.
With other notable first-round efforts this season reading 69 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 68 at the Shriners Children’s Open, the putting savant has hardly had his best stuff on Thursdays. Typically waiting for the second or third round to spike, the difficulty of Memorial Park should be right up his alley. Having gotten around the Doak redesign with rounds of 69-72-69-70 a year ago, he proved his game is capable in this setting.
Striking the ball beautifully to begin this new campaign, some of McCarthy’s most memorable rounds from last season occurred in the most adverse conditions. With strong single round performances at the Honda Classic, Players Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Valspar Championship, perhaps more of the same could be in store at the Houston Open. He has a tendency to let scoring opportunities fall by the wayside on par-5’s, but if he is able to run the table on those holes, he might just post something in the mid-60’s.
Martin Laird (+10000)
In the off chance the wind wreaks havoc on players throughout the entirety of the day, few are more well suited than Laird. A winner at TPC Summerlin, TPC San Antonio, and Bay Hill, the Scot is more than acclimated to difficult, windy conditions.
Kick starting his season with a T-11 defense performance at the Shriners Children’s Open, he has since followed it up with a T-22 effort last week at El Camaleon. Gaining on the field via driving distance, fairways, and greens in regulation in each start this season, the 38-year-old appears rejuvenated. Couple his ball-striking prowess with a resurgence from around-the-green and Laird is close to having one of those really special days.
Some of this can be credited to his performances in the first-round alone. Posting +3.1 and +2.0 SG: Tee-to-Green at Country Club of Jackson and TPC Summerlin and +1.3 SG: Total at El Camaleon, Laird has carded opening rounds of 67-67-68. As is typical for Laird, it will come down to his putting, but I don’t mind chancing he’ll find his touch on the greens at this price.
Nate Lashley (+10000)
A strong start to his 2021-2022 campaign was put to an abrupt end last week in Mexico, but I’ve seen enough good to be comfortable with Lashley in this spot. Capturing a couple of top-20 finishes and a top-40 finish in his first three starts of the season, the 38-year-old relied quite heavily on his putter.
With his last measured event on Bermuda grass reading +8.4 SG: Putting, it’s hard not to like his chances for just a single round. As while the ball-striking has been suspect, there has been enough good mixed in where his putter gives him a fighting chance.
Effective on long par-4’s and par-5’s, he will have to get by the par-3’s in a mistake-free fashion. Having posted rounds of 68 and 69 in last year’s Houston Open, Lashley has proven if his ball-striking shows up, he has the game to get around Memorial Park.
Peter Uihlein (+10000)
Propelled into the spotlight via a decorated amateur career, Uihlein took some time to find his footing in the professional setting here in the United States. Recently getting through the Korn Ferry Tour Finals via three consecutive made cuts, the former Oklahoma State Cowboy secured his PGA Tour status for this season.
Along with a strong finish to the year, Uihlein captured the MGM Resorts Championship in windy Las Vegas in April, getting to 16-under – an outlier of a winning score on the KFT – and claiming victory by four-strokes. He has since found a bit of success on the big stage, making both of his cuts in the two tournaments in which the 32-year-old has decided to tee it up.
Classified as a “Bermuda specialist,” Uihlein is plenty long off-the-tee, aiding his efforts on the par-4’s and par-5’s of Memorial Park. If able to carry his iron play over from Port Royal Golf Course, he is more than capable to take it low on Thursday.
Seung-Yul Noh (+15000)
I would classify our final selection as a Bill Haas type play – which looked rather good I might add – as Noh finds his name near the bottom of the first-round market. Officially back to playing golf after serving in the South Korea military, the 30-year-old is slowly but surely building towards the player he used to be.
As last time he teed it up in Texas, Noh found himself in the first-round mix at the Valero Texas Open to the tune of 5-under 67. He has been unable to replicate such a first-round performance in his three starts this season, but a top-30 finish at the Bermuda Championship should give him a boost of confidence.
Seeing some potential parallels to TPC Southwind, the St. Jude host was the site of Noh’s best golf during his prime. Liking the way his game as a whole is trending ahead of the Houston Open, Noh appears to improve the more he plays. He can be erratic off-the-tee, but just one cooperative round with the big stick will be required for our interests.
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