The 105th running of the PGA Championship will take place this week at Oak Hill Country Club.
Hosting a tournament in New York in the month of May is a hit-or-miss proposition on the weather front. Luckily, it appears they’ve dodged most of the potential issues with the exception of some cold temperatures and potential frost delays.
This week’s course is a par 70 that will stretch out to nearly 7,400 yards. The fairways are running pretty firm but that is still a very long golf course when you factor in thick rough and cold temperatures.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the betting board to see what matchups stand out.
Adam Scott over Wyndham Clark - Tournament Matchup (+100)
This is an interesting price here as Scott brings a lot to the table this week.
First, is major championship experience. Clark has played in just five majors with nothing better than a T75 on his resume. For Scott, this will be his 88th appearance at a major and he arrives with top 10s in 19 of those past majors.
Second, we look at their overlapping events since the start of last season. Scott has the slight edge, getting the better of Clark in 9-of-17 events played.
Lastly, Scott arrives with back-to-back top 10s so his confidence tank is almost full. I will gladly take the plus-money on this matchup.
Tony Finau over Jason Day - Tournament Matchup (-125)
Day arrives fresh off a win while Finau has a win and T23 in his two lead-up starts. Both are playing good golf right now.
I think on paper this is a fair price for the matchup, based on performance stats alone in the last year or so.
However, there are a lot of external factors that lead me away from Day. In his Wednesday presser, he said he hasn’t played the course yet this week and likely won’t play it today, either. On the flip side, Finau played the course and talked in his press conference about how well it fits his game.
Next, we have a perhaps semi-joking tweet from reporter Jason Sobel, “Consensus here in pollen-covered Rochester is that the player with the fewest allergies should be the last man standing on Sunday.” Day has dealt with allergy issues in the past so he may be fighting through that while also trying to learn the course on the fly.
Lastly, we have some cold temperatures in the early-week forecast and Day has dealt with plenty of back issues in the past, as well.
So, overall I think this is a fair price but I think there are more external factors working against Day when looking at possible range of outcomes.
