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After an exciting round of play on Thursday, we now have a clearer picture of the Ocean Course and its potential wrath. Looking at the leaderboard, players who are known for their ball-striking have risen to the top. When you see names like Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, and Collin Morikawa, it’s hard to ignore this sentiment. We will be sure to keep this in mind as Round 2 will be upon us in no time.
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Round 2 Plays (Odds via PointsBet Sportsbook):
Jordan Spieth (+2500 to win):
When it comes to Spieth, the biggest concern coming into the PGA Championship was his driving. Many said that he would struggle at the Ocean Course or at least disappoint as his driver would inevitably let him down. And if you weren’t watching on Thursday, I’m sure you assume that’s exactly what happened.
But not so fast my friend, as it was Spieth’s strengths of iron play and putting that were his downfall. Spieth ranked inside the top-20 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, but outside the top-50 in SG: Approach. I’d expect his irons to improve slightly as the week progresses as he has been arguably the best iron player in the world over the past couple of months.
Spieth’s chances will come down to the putter, as he ranked outside the top-120 in SG: Putting on Thursday. It was his Achilles heel at Augusta last month and I’m sure it’s weighing on his mind. If that club cooperates and the afternoon winds freshen like they are supposed to tomorrow, Spieth could easily be within a few shots of the lead heading into the weekend.
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Stewart Cink (+164) over Harris English and Alexander Noren:
Don’t worry, I’ll get to one of the marquee three-balls soon enough, but let’s discuss Cink’s round first. A two-time winner on the PGA Tour this year, Cink gained strokes across all statistical categories on Thursday. He ranked in the top-half of the field in all tee-to-green metrics and inside the top-25 in SG: Putting.
There’s always the potential for the putter to run cold on Friday, but even if that proves to be the case, the rest of his game should hold steady. He has proven he’s capable of stringing together quality rounds and I would be surprised if he doesn’t do so tomorrow.
Both English and Noren struggled in their first rounds on their way to scores of 3-over and 5-over respectively. While English didn’t have the worst day with his irons, ranking inside the top-half of the field in SG: Approach, the rest of his bag lagged behind. Noren meanwhile struggled in every facet of the game. Both of these players are historically very solid putters, so there’s a risk they catch a hot one tomorrow, but Cink’s tee-to-green game should be enough to squeak this one out.
Brooks Koepka (+215) over Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy:
For better or for worse, I was high on Koepka coming into the PGA Championship. The reason being is that he showed signs of life in Dallas last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson. As you can imagine, this thought was completely thrown out the window after Koepka made double-bogey on his opening hole early Thursday morning.
And then he reeled me back in, going 5-under over his next 17 holes to come home in 3-under 69. For the most part, the game looked sharp, finishing inside the top-5 in the field in SG: Approach and inside the top-25 in both SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Putting. The room for improvement comes with the big stick and I am confident it’ll happen. If it does, Koepka should only build on his Round 1 play.
It’s always a difficult proposition to wager against two of the world’s best in Thomas and McIlroy. But it’s not often that you see these two strike the ball as poorly as they did in Round 1. Both ranked outside the top-100 in SG: Off-the-Tee and outside the top-70 in SG: Approach.
Combine that with Thomas’s putting woes this year and McIlroy’s inherent streakiness and I find myself leaning with the best ball-striker of the group. With winds expected to freshen tomorrow afternoon, ball-striking will be paramount and that should only help the heavy underdog that is Koepka.
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