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Wow, wow, and wow. That’s all I really have to say. The third round of the PGA Championship had all the feel of a final round of a major championship. Lucky for us, it was only Saturday. There was a rise with Phil Mickelson going 5-under through his first 10 holes. A conflict, when an overcooked draw from the face of his trusty 2-wood found the water on the 13th hole, resulting in a double-bogey. As for a potential fall and resolution, we will simply have to wait 24 hours as Mickelson will attempt to become the oldest major championship winner.
Alongside Mickelson in the final pairing will be the big, bad bully that is Brooks Koepka, who “had the worst putting performance of the week” in his third round. Those of you who will look to his Strokes Gained: Putting number may disagree, but I find it hard to knock the four-time major champion. His speed was off for the majority of the day, often leaving himself unnecessary stress on the putting surfaces. Still, Koepka was able to turn in a round of 2-under 70, matching Mickelson’s third round score, and will start one-stroke behind the five-time major winner.
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This championship won’t be handed to either of them as there are a number of players who could make a Sunday run for glory. Louis Oosthuizen and Kevin Streelman will be in the penultimate group, each with a realistic shot to win the year’s second major. And then you have the South African duo of Branden Grace and Christiaan Bezuidenhout sitting at 3-under and hardly out of it.
With the winds expected to freshen as the leaders are making the turn, the furthest back I would go to find a winner is 2-under. There you have Gary Woodland, Joaquin Niemann, and Bryson DeChambeau. All would make for a tremendous story, but maybe none better than Niemann, who would be the youngest PGA champion since Rory McIlroy.
I for one will be sticking to my lone horse left in the race, the one rocking the questionable facial hair. Koepka, who was listed at +5000 pre-tournament is all the way down to +150 and is the current favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook. With no other clear outright value in my mind, I’ll sit this one out and hope Koepka can play spoiler to Mickelson. There are a few early afternoon head-to-head matchups that have garnered my attention and should hopefully provide some entertainment before the real action begins.
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Round 4 Plays (Odds via PointsBet):
Patrick Cantlay (+110) over Tony Finau:
This should be a comfortable pairing for the two Americans. The duo were members of the same Presidents Cup team in Australia in 2020 and will in all likelihood be teammates this fall in Wisconsin. They both sit at even-par after 54 holes, but I am more bullish of Cantlay heading into tomorrow’s final round.
Cantlay has been an enigma over the past couple of months, but has shown this week that he may very well be returning to form. For the week, he ranks 7th in SG: Tee-to-Green, thanks to strong performances from off-the-tee and with his irons. The main concern I had with Cantlay coming into the PGA Championship was his putter. He hasn’t done anything to squash those concerns, but just an average day on the greens should leave him in a good position in this one.
Finau isn’t far behind in the SG: Tee-to-Green category, ranking 17th in the field thus far. However, that is primarily attributed to his short-game as he is leading the field in SG: Around-the-Green through three rounds. His ball-striking has been lackluster at times and hopefully that’s the case tomorrow.
Ian Poulter (+161) over Will Zalatoris:
As you can tell by now, I am a fan of heavy underdogs when it comes to single round head-to-head matchups. While I typically target those players, who are striking the ball well, but just not holing enough putts, I’ll be going a different route in this matchup.
Zalatoris has been his normal self this week, ranking inside the top-15 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach. The ball-striking that we are used to seeing from the former Demon Deacon has been there for the majority of the PGA Championship. However, the putter, which typically isn’t all that great, appears to be even worse. There’s a chance that his putter holds him back once again tomorrow, giving Poulter a crack to slip through.
The fiery Englishman on the other hand has been driving and putting the ball beautifully. When looking into his third round, he actually hit his irons quite well, but left some strokes out on the greens. At this price, I’m comfortable hoping that Poulter will be able to keep those irons around for one more day and return to his typical steady putting.
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