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All things considered, there’s not much to work with this week when handicapping the Zozo Championship.
Take last year’s results, where Patrick Cantlay won against a loaded field, and throw them out. That event was played at Sherwood Country Club in California, a far cry from this week’s host site in Japan, and most of the top combatants will watch this week’s event from home. Two years ago was the only time it was played at Accordia Narashino CC, when Tiger Woods captures his record-tying 82nd PGA Tour win. But that week the course was deluged by rain, with the event stretching to Monday and one par-4 reduced to 140 yards just to remain playable.
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This week weather is expected to be less of a factor, meaning the Narashino players are about to encounter may bear little resemblance to the 2019 version, when the field could wail away with driver off the tee given the soft conditions and minimal rough. With drier conditions in play, there should be more of a premium on finding the fairway - even if this is a course where a strong ball-striking/weak putting combo could pay off.
Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa headline the field, followed by Hideki Matsuyama playing in front of home fans. Here’s a look at some of the players I have my eye on this week, starting with Chile’s favorite son and a strong course fit:
To Win (odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
Joaquin Niemann (+2500): It feels like Niemann should have (or already has?) more than one PGA Tour win. That came at a now-defunct event at The Greenbrier, and he has had a number of near-misses since then including a trio of runner-up finishes last year. Niemann has been relatively quiet lately, including a struggle at the Tour Championship, but I’m willing to buy low on a course that should suit his eye.
Look at the places where he has contended in recent months: Detroit GC (P-2, 72 holes without a bogey), Innisbrook (T-8), Waialae (P-2), Harbour Town (T-5). Tighten the fairways, bring in the trees, put an emphasis on tee-to-green play and you have his attention. Niemann should find similar success this week, as he along with Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) seem to be benefiting from some short prices at the top along with Rickie Fowler‘s meteoric ascent up the odds board after one week of solid play.
Niemann has the goods, even if he hasn’t shown them in recent weeks, and this venue should play right into his hands.
Emiliano Grillo (+4000): When last we saw the Argentine, he was closing out a final-round 61 in Las Vegas that included playing his final six holes in 7 under. The fact that it only netted him a T-18 finish at the CJ Cup may be a reason why he’s not receiving as much attention this week, but Grillo remains a strong ball-striking option who can catch fire on the greens at a moment’s notice. His result last week came despite losing strokes on the greens across all four rounds, a sign that his ball-striking figures are not far off from where he would need them to be in order to contend against a field with far less star power.
Grillo is an above average driver, especially on courses that demand a mix of accuracy and length, and his penchant for tree-lined venues is evidenced by the fact that his lone Tour win remains at Silverado in Napa. He’s also had success at venues like Colonial and Harbour Town to extend the trend, and his combination of skill set and recent form could be enough to overcome any lingering jet lag from the flight to Japan.
Luke List (+6000): If it’s a course that leans heavily on ball-striking and excuses some putting sins, it’s time to circle List’s name. The American broke through on the Korn Ferry Tour last summer but remains in search of his first PGA Tour win, this despite racking up 200 career starts and more than $9 million in earnings. His T-17 finish a couple weeks ago in Mississippi, including a final-round 65, serves as a promising sign of what he can achieve on a course that emphasizes work off the tee and into the green.
List missed the cut in Vegas thanks in large part to a dreadful showing on the greens, and he should fare better on the bent grass surfaces at Narashino. His approach play was solid, and has been for each of the first three starts of the new season. If his driving returns to the levels he showed at Fortinet and Sanderson Farms, he could be in the mix for an elusive trophy in start No. 201.
Top-10 Finishes (odds via PointsBet)
Jhonattan Vegas (+215): Vegas was a popular pick last week at The Summit Club, where he turned in a respectable T-14 finish. It continued a solid trend line for the Venezuelan, who had a pair of runner-up finishes this summer and has now finished T-16 or better in five of his last seven starts overall. Vegas’ Strokes Gained stats have undergone a steady climb in recent months, and he particularly shined with his ball-striking stats last week while picking up ground in all four major SG categories. A similar performance this week, especially one rooted in solid work off the tee, should put him in the mix for the second week in a row.
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Brandon Hagy (+600): Going back to the well on Hagy, a long hitter that made my card for the Sanderson before posting a solid but unspectacular result. This is an instance where his advantage off the tee should once again come into play, as he boasts the top “course fit” boost o anyone in the field per Data Golf. Hagy picked up strokes last week on and around the greens but struggled a bit with his irons. A strong driving week at Narashino should net him plenty of birdie opportunities, and it could give him a shot at a top-10 against a relatively weak field like he racked up in Reno and Detroit over the summer.
Scott Vincent (+850): While some players will have to spend time acclimating to the conditions and jet lag, Vincent will feel right at home. The Zimbabwean played his college golf at Virginia Tech in the mid-2010s, but he has since set up shop on the Asian Tour and has made each of his last 17 tournament starts in Japan dating back to April. That includes a T-16 finish at the Tokyo Olympics, and Vincent has been on something of a tear in Japan with two wins among nine top-20 finishes over his last nine starts. This will be a step up in competition for sure, but he’ll receive some benefit from a comfort level both in the country and on this style of course.
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