With the Masters just a week away, the PGA Tour heads to TPC San Antonio for the 2023 Valero Texas Open. For a few, this tournament will serve as a tune-up for Augusta. For many, this tournament serves as a last chance to qualify for the Masters. With a weaker field, anything is possible. Eight of the previous 10 winners of this tournament had not yet qualified to play in the Masters. The biggest name in that list of golfers fighting for Masters eligibility is Rickie Fowler (+1800). Fowler makes a ton of sense from a betting perspective. He’s playing great golf. He’s gaining a ton of strokes on approach, and he knocked off the goliath Jon Rahm in the Dell Matchplay.
This week is a great week to look for long shots. Last season the eventual winner J.J. Spaun (+3400), opened at +20000. Outside of Jordan Spieth two years ago, this event feels like larger-priced golfers always win it. This is the week to lower your unit size and spread them out on a few longer-odds golfers.
TPC San Antonio is a long 7,438-yard par 72 course that should play firm and fast this week. The warm February and March awakened the underlying Bermuda. Most of the area has been in a drought and has had water restrictions for over a year. The course isn’t overly penal rough, and the average landing area fairway widths are 25-30 yards. While the course is long, shorter hitters, have also seen success here. There are many pathways to victory here, hence the reason for such a diverse group of winners over the years. That said, golfers still must putt well and avoid big scores. Par is your friend this week.
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Key Metrics Correlated to Success:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- SG: Putting
- Driving Distance
- SG: Par 5
- Good Drives
- Sand Saves
- Bogey Avoidance
Picks to win the 2023 Valero Texas Open
Chris Kirk +3100 0.25 units
Of the golfers I have bet on this week, Chris Kirk is my favorite of them all. For starters, Kirk might have the highest win equity in the field. The five-time PGA Tour winner has multiple wins on Tour and a PGA Tour win as recent as this year’s Honda Classic. Kirk has had mixed results since that win with a T39 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a missed cut at The Players, and he didn’t make it out of his group at the Dell Technologies Matchplay. Kirk isn’t the golfer who will bomb and gouge a course. He will be the golfer who dinks and dunks and ensures he doesn’t add any annoying boxes to his scorecard.
Kirk, over the last 24 rounds he’s gaining +0.3 strokes on approach per round, which is good for 21st in the field. He’s also 15th in bogey avoidance. At a course where par is your friend, this should provide solace to anyone backing Kirk this week. His putter at The Players was terrible. He lost -3.1 strokes putting, but that course is challenging. It’s not only demanding physically, but it’s also demanding mentally. Poor putting isn’t something he’s made a habit of. He’s only lost strokes, putting in two of his last 11 measured events. Kirk’s two top-10 finishes in the previous four trips here proves that he excels here. Plus, two wins in a season would be a fantastic comeback story for Kirk; I’ll be rooting for him.
Andrew Putnam +6600 0.25 units
There’s always one golfer whom I dream about winning an event after researching and studying the course. This week, that’s Andrew Putnam. I obviously didn’t place a bet on him just because he’s got good vibes, and “Dream Brad” won racks on him. I bet on him because his skill set should match up well here. Putnam is 10th on my model in large part because of his sick putting prowess and his great work out of the bunkers. He’s fourth in SG: P and 10th in Sand Saves. Much like Kirk, he’s excellent at avoiding bogeys.
Putnam should have a bit more confidence after finishing 3-0 in his Matchplay group last week. It’s been a few years since Putnam has finished inside the top 10 here, but if he can use his success from last week to turn around his recent poor play, Putnam could be dangerous this week.
Matt Wallace +4000 0.25 units
There’s not a single bone in my body that truly believes Matt Wallace will win back-to-back events on the PGA Tour. Not yet at least. But it’s too hard for me to omit him from my outright betting card when he fits the course profile to a tee. He’s third on my primary model. Tyrrell Hatton (+1300) and Lanto Griffin (+13000) are the two other golfers ahead of him. I won’t be betting on Hatton due to his short price and the injury he sustained on the range before the Dell Matchplay, and I already have a small 0.2 units sized bet on Griffin.
Wallace isn’t a bomber by any means. But averaging 301 yards off the tee is long enough to be dangerous. He’s only hitting fairways at a 52% clip, but generally, his misses are what I’d consider good misses. Meaning he doesn’t miss the fairway by a wide margin. Gaining strokes off the tee hasn’t always been his strong suit. Where he excels the most is on approach. Yes, it’s a bit misleading, but over the last 24 rounds, he is 13th in SG: App and has gained +2.6 strokes on approach on average over his previous five tournaments. He had a string of missing six out of seven cuts but put those issues to bed with a T7 at Valspar and a win last week at Corales. Wallace also has a top-five finish here. He knows the course and is playing too well for us not to take him.
