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What a month of golf it has been. From a whirlwind PGA Championship, a shocking Memorial, and a poetic U.S. Open. As the calendar turns to the summer months, the PGA Tour goes into a bit of a lull when it comes to big-time tournaments. This week at the Travelers Championship begins a three-week stretch of golf that includes the Rocket Mortgage Classic and John Deere Classic. All of this will lead up to the Open Championship, where Shane Lowry is still the Champion Golfer of the Year, or is it years?
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The field this week in Cromwell, Connecticut is hardly a forgettable one. Newly world No. 2, Dustin Johnson will look to defend his Travelers title as he was able to hold off a number of players in last year’s version of this tournament. A win this week would vault Johnson back into the top spot in the world which is currently occupied by U.S. Open champion, Jon Rahm.
Johnson, as well as many of the other past champions, have utilized a similar strategy when attacking TPC River Highlands. A Pete Dye redesign, this par-70 measures just north of 6,800 yards. One of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour, it has shown year after year that any type of player can find success in the upper Northeast.
The path to victory typically relies on three different aspects of a player’s game. Strong iron-play is pertinent every week, but even more so at the Travelers, as players will have numerous birdie chances if they are able to hone in their scoring clubs. The next part of the equation is simply taking advantage of said scoring opportunities and converting putts for birdies.
Lastly, being a par-70, par-4 scoring is of the utmost importance this week. Each of the last few champions have done most of their damage on those holes and surely it won’t be too different this time around. While these are important statistics to look at for the full tournament, they are also what we will be looking at in the first-round alone.
At the time of writing this article, the weather on Thursday looks pristine. Temperatures in the mid-70’s and winds only up to 10 miles per hour present ideal scoring conditions. Mackenzie Hughes opened last year’s tournament with a 10-under 60 and Jim Furyk shot 58 here in 2016, so a low round will be needed in order to be leading after the first-round.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of the Travelers Championship. Tournament favorites Bryson DeChambeau and Johnson occupy the top of the odds board at +2500. It will be interesting to see how DeChambeau bounces back after a back-nine 44 derailed his U.S. Open chances last week.
Odds to Lead After the First-Round (odds via PointsBet):
+2500: Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson
+3000: Brooks Koepka
+3300: Patrick Cantlay, Paul Casey, Scottie Scheffler
+4000: Abraham Ancer, Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, Patrick Reed
+5000: Bubba Watson, Cameron Smith, Charley Hoffman, Harris English, Joaquin Niemann, Matthew Wolff, Russell Henley, Sam Burns, Si Woo Kim
To Lead After the First-Round (odds via PointsBet):
Cameron Tringale +6000:
There’s a possibility that Tringale’s best golf is behind him and we are selecting him at an inopportune time. While the numbers unfortunately back up this sentiment, I’m willing to wager it was his jam-packed schedule that got the best of him and not so much the state of his game. Having played five out of six weeks on the PGA Tour, Tringale has since taken a bit of a break and that’s why I believe the Travelers could be a potential bounce back spot.
Tringale struggled in the month of May, missing the cut at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship. He seemingly got back on track with some decent finishes at the Charles Schwab and the Memorial, but his off-the-tee numbers were concerning in both. While it’s the reality we live in, we simply have to hope the irons and putter can be good enough on Thursday.
He definitely has a knack for pouring putts in in the first-round, as evidenced by gaining +6.5 SG: Putting on his last three Thursdays. And while his Travelers history is nothing to write home about, he does have rounds of 64 and 65 at TPC River Highlands under his belt.
Keegan Bradley +6000:
It just feels like a Bradley first-round leader week. Hailing from New England, Bradley has made TPC River Highlands an annual stop on his playing calendar. With a strong familiarity with this course, Bradley has been able to get off to strong starts in each of his appearances here.
Since 2012, Bradley has shot under par in each of his first-rounds in the Travelers Championship. This stretch of nine rounds includes scores of 5-under 65 in 2019 and 6-under 64 in 2015. In total, his scoring average has been 66.78 during this time and he now comes playing some of the best golf of his career.
We are going to put the Memorial behind us as Bradley lost nearly three-strokes around-the-greens. However, before that Bradley had strong showings at the PGA Championship, Wells Fargo Championship, and the Valspar Championship. He led after the first-round in Tampa and nearly did so again in both Charlotte and Kiawah Island. With such a high comfort level around this place, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bradley is able to set the early pace once again.
Brandt Snedeker +8000:
Here’s to hoping Snedeker’s spring resurgence can trickle into the summer months. Snedeker has now made six consecutive cuts thanks in part to his play in the first-round. While he has been struggling from off-the-tee, he has been getting the job done through a combination of strong iron-play and streaky putting.
That pair should go well at TPC River Highlands and it’s not surprising to see Snedeker boasting a strong history at this venue. From 2014 to 2017, in three appearances, Snedeker posted finishes of T-11, T-10, and T-14. In those starts, Snedeker didn’t start all too fast, but was still able to record rounds of 7-under 63 and 6-under 64, albeit not in the first-round.
In six total starts, he has averaged an opening round score of 68.17. That won’t be good enough as players tend to run extremely hot on Thursdays in Connecticut. However, I want Snedeker’s inherently streaky putting in our back pocket. If he’s able to have one of those rounds where the hole looks like bucket, the iron play has been good enough where the vast majority of those putts should be for birdie.
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Hank Lebioda +10000:
I’ve been following Hammerin’ Hank for the past couple of months and think a course like TPC River Highlands could do wonders for him. He’s been able to put together some strong finishes, highlighted by a T-13 at the Valspar Championship, but it’s actually his performance at the Palmetto Championship that I believe will translate nicely this week.
For the week, he lost –3.2 SG: Approach in Ridgeland, South Carolina, but his play in the first-round was hardly the issue. He gained strokes across all statistical categories that Thursday, including +2.3 SG: Approach. If he is able to have a showing like that with his irons this Thursday, he should be able to be in the mix for first-round leader.
He’s gained strokes with his flat stick in four consecutive first-rounds and has had success on TPC River Highland’s greens in the past. In two appearances, he’s opened with 1-under 69 in both of them, a far cry from what we’ll need from him this week. But let’s not forget that Lebioda is in the midst of some of the best golf of his career and appears to be knocking on the door of one of those really low rounds.
Nick Taylor +10000:
When conducting research on our last selection, everything was telling me to go with Vaughn Taylor instead. Our Taylor simply doesn’t have the course history to go on, but he certainly does have the recent form that we like to see. It’s been a well-rounded approach for the Canadian in recent first-rounds and I am hoping that will continue at TPC River Highlands.
Specifically in his last start at the Palmetto Championship, Taylor gained strokes across all four major statistical categories in Round 1. While this was a one-off, Taylor’s play on par-4’s has been exquisite and should lead him to success this week.
He’s gained strokes on those holes on five consecutive Thursdays, including at the Valspar Championship where he gained +3.7 SG: Par-4’s. If he is able to put together a performance similar to that in Tampa, Taylor has shown in the past that he can get hot enough to catch fire in the first-round.
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