Obviously, the Kentucky Derby gets most of the spotlight today, but there are many fantastic races on the undercard as well. Some of the best horses in the country will compete for a handful of the biggest purses offered anywhere in the country this year. Here are the two undercard races on which I am focusing my wagering attention:
Tune to NBC Sports and Peacock all afternoon for full coverage of this most spectacular day of horse racing.
THE AMERICAN TURF
RACE 9, CHURCHILL DOWNS
SATURDAY MAY 6, POST TIME 3:40PM ET
I am really excited for this race – the 2023 crop of 3-year-old turf males is exceptionally strong, and all the major hitters have showed up here. Most of the attention will center around the two main contenders, #2 Far Bridge and #11 Carl Spackler, so I will start there.
These two horses will forever be linked to one another, as they both debuted in the same race on January 21 at Gulfstream. Far Bridge came out on top that day, with Carl Spackler a head behind – but both horses were a whopping six lengths clear of the rest of the field. Far Bridge won that day, but I think Carl Spackler will be a better horse this year – Far Bridge is sired by English Channel, whose progeny usually do not reach their peak until later in their careers. Plus, Far Bridge was recently sold by original owner Calumet Farm, and subsequently transferred from Christophe Clement to Todd Pletcher. I do not know why, but the horse missed a workout on April 20, and as a result, it is unlikely he is at 100% fitness here. He is going to need to be to beat this very strong field. Carl Spackler could win, but there are some really strong horses in this field, and I do not want to take a short price.
I decided on #4 Talk of the Nation. At first glance, this looks like a major step up in class, as his last race came in a minor stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs, a track where the competition can be subpar. However, that was an exceptionally strong race for the level – Talk of the Nation beat runner-up Mo Stash by 2 1/2 lengths that day – that rival went on to win G3 Transylvania in his next start. The Churchill Downs turf course has been favoring front-runners recently and Talk of the Nation’s stalk-and-pounce running style should put him in great position. I love the jockey switch to Tyler Gaffalione. It is certainly not a bad thing that Gaffalione’s coming off a win in the Oaks yesterday!
THE PLAY:
WIN: #4 Talk of the Nation, at 8-1 or higher
OLD FORESTER BOURBON TURF CLASSIC
RACE 11, CHURCHILL DOWNS
SATURDAY MAY 6, POST TIME 5:27PM ET
The scratch of #4 Steady On leaves 3 major standouts: #5 Up to the Mark, #7 Hong Kong Harry, and #8 Santin. Of those 3, I much prefer Up to the Mark. His 3rd place in the Maker’s Mile last time out was a sneaky good performance – the only horses that beat him were last year’s Champion Turf Male (Modern Games) and a very good horse that got loose on the lead (Chez Pierre). This is only his 9th career start, so he has room to improve, and jockey Irad Ortiz has indicated that Up to the Mark would be best at 1 1/16th miles or 1 1/8 miles. This is a perfect spot for him and I am keying him on top in all of my tickets.
As for the other two main contenders, I am against Santin as he took advantage of a funky Churchill Downs turf course last year to win two Grade 1’s – this is not the same turf course as it was last year. I do not trust him to recreate those efforts this year. And as for California shipper Hong Kong Harry, I do not know if the 1 1/8 mile distance suits him, and his form has been flattered by a weak group of California turf horses.
Best Bet:
WIN: #5 Up to the Mark, at 5/2 or higher
Enjoy Kentucky Derby Day!
