Although the Black-Eyed Susan pales in comparison to the Kentucky Oaks, it is still a prestigious graded stakes event for three-year-old fillies that has been known to offer fantastic wagering opportunities in the past. Contested at the same mile-and-one-eighth distance as the Oaks just two weeks prior, the Black-Eyed Susan allows connections an opportunity to either: a) look for a slightly easier spot at the same distance as the Oaks, or b) give their fillies an additional two weeks to prepare for a distance many of them will be trying for the first time. Below you will find the most likely winner of the Black-Eyed Susan, a horse who may offer some value in the race, along with a longshot to keep an eye on Friday afternoon.
MOST LIKELY WINNER
While she does not tower over this field when it comes to speed figures, there is every reason to believe that Adventuring (#9, 4/1 morning line odds) is just scratching the surface of her potential. Trained by Brad Cox, this three-year-old filly is sired by Pioneerof the Nile, the same sire of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah. Not only that, but Adventuring’s dam, Questing, was a multiple Grade 1 winner as a three-year-old, taking the prestigious G1 Coaching Club American Oaks and G1 Alabama at Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York. Adventuring has already demonstrated an ability to win from a stalking position as well as from well off the pace, enabling her rider, Florent Geroux, to play the break and place her wherever he sees fit. Her morning line odds of 4/1 (roughly 20% chance of winning) would represent an overlay, as it feels as though she should be closer to the 5/2 range (roughly 28% chance of winning).
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VALUE
Iced Latte (#6, 8/1 morning line odds) is a filly on the improve for trainer Todd Pletcher, and her greatest asset is her early speed. Despite only having three starts under her belt, the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile has shown that her game plays at different tracks over different surface conditions. In her most recent start, she won the speed duel but lost the war, finishing second over a sloppy-sealed track at Belmont Park in her first start against winners. In her start prior, she broke her maiden over a fast main track at Gulfstream Park going a one-turn mile, drawing off to win by more than three-lengths. Now reunited with Luis Saez, look for Iced Latte to be in front as the field hits the top of the lane on Friday. The 8/1 morning line odds (roughly 11% chance of winning) assigned to her appear to be accurate and would represent fair value.
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LONGSHOT
The Maryland-based Miss Leslie (#7, 15/1 morning line odds) is not blessed with any sort of early speed, but she has proven herself to be a formidable foe when racing around two-turns. Trained by Claudio Gonzalez, the daughter by Paynter has excelled when allowed to travel a route of ground, sporting a perfect 2-for-2 record when doing so. Her most recent start came in the Weber City Miss at Pimlico, the local prep for the Black-Eyed Susan. In that race, Miss Leslie was pinched back at the start and took up a trailing position before angling out at the top of the lane and finishing with gusto. Visually it looks as though the longer the better for this filly, and if the pace heats up, she will be making her presence felt in deep stretch at a giant price. At odds of 12/1 (roughly 8% chance of winning) or greater, Miss Leslie intrigues as a longshot.
MATT BERNIER’S 2021 BLACK-EYED SUSAN PICKS
1) 9 – Adventuring, 4/1 ML
2) 7 – Miss Leslie, 15/1 ML
3) 6 – Iced Latte, 8/1 ML
4) 8 – The Grass Is Blue, 6/1 ML
