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Each year, the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap is one of the most highly anticipated events on the racing calendar. A one-turn mile on dirt for older horses, the Met Mile has become known as a “stallion making” race, as winners of the race must possess the ideal blend of speed and stamina – two traits that are vital for top stallion prospects. This year’s Met Mile only has a field of six, and while one horse looks to be an overwhelming favorite, it’s not as though he’s a slam dunk. Below you’ll find the most likely winner of the race, a horse who could offer a bit of value, as well as a runner who could surprise at a longer price.
MOST LIKELY WINNER
Typically, when the fastest horse in any given race is also the controlling speed, they win. 2021 Pegasus World Cup winner Knicks Go (#6, 6/5 morning line odds) appears to tick both of those boxes, making him extremely dangerous in Saturday’s Metropolitan. Trained by Brad Cox, the five-year-old son of Paynter (who himself was runner-up in the 2012 Belmont Stakes) can be categorized as a need-the-lead type of runner. If he’s unable to control things from the start he may be in trouble, as he’s unwilling to pass horses – something that makes him a bit of a precarious wagering proposition at an extremely short price. Nonetheless, if jockey Joel Rosario can break alertly and clear to the front from the outset, Knicks Go figures to be tough to be beat here. Knicks Go’s morning line odds of 6/5 (implied probability of 45.5%) seem accurate in terms of his chances of victory, however he’s likely to go off at odds closer to 4/5, which would constitute an underlay.
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VALUE
A horse who has always hinted at having serious ability but has yet to deliver on said promise is Dr Post (#2, 9/2 morning line odds) for trainer Todd Pletcher. Having made just one start as a four-year-old this season, the Quality Road colt showed a willingness to sit closer to the pace in May 1’s Westchester at Belmont Park, an indication he may be trending the right direction as an older horse. The new dimension displayed last month combined with the career best 104 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in victory make him mildly intriguing in a short field such as this one. No, he’s not nearly as fast as a horse like Knicks Go; however, a forward move in Dr Post’s second start of the season would give him a puncher’s chance. The 9/2 morning line odds (implied probability of roughly 18%) assigned to Dr Post feel underwhelming, as a price nearer to 6/1 (implied probability of roughly 14%) would represent a fair price.
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LONGSHOT
Based on his recent speed figures, it would appear difficult to make a compelling case for By My Standards (#5, 10/1 morning line odds) winning this year’s Met Mile. However, when further examined, the five-year-old horse’s form can be rationally explained. Throughout the summer of 2020, By My Standards took on the elite older males in the United States, giving credible accounts of himself each time. When winning last September’s Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs, the Bret Calhoun trainee did something mechanically he’d never done before. When something like this occurs – especially with older horses who typically do everything perfectly (from a mechanics standpoint) – it’s worth monitoring, as it may be a sign they’re about to trend off form. Sure enough, By My Standards laid eggs in each of his two subsequent starts before being given the winter off. His return effort in April’s Oaklawn Mile is much better than it appears at face value, as he rallied wide while chasing a snail’s pace, eventually running down a solid older horse named Rushie. The one-turn mile may not be his cup of tea, but at odds of 6/1 (implied probability of roughly 14%) or better, By My Standards may be worth a wager in Saturday’s Met Mile.
MATT BERNIER’S 2021 METROPOLITAN HANDICAP PICKS
1) 5 – By My Standards, 10/1 ML
2) 6 – Knicks Go, 6/5 ML
3) 2 – Dr Post, 9/2 ML
4) 3 – Silver State, 7/2 ML
