Vaughn Dalzell breaks down who he thinks will take the American League Division Series between the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers, plus the Houston Astros vs the Minnesota Twins.
Baltimore Orioles (-115) vs. Texas Rangers (-105)
The Orioles are an MLB-leading 35-17 (67.3%) in Game 1 of their regular-season series this year, so if that continues, they are a good bet to win the series.
However, Texas is one of two teams in the postseason with losing road records (Minnesota) and they stole both Game 1 and 2 of the Wild Card round at Tampa Bay, with ease I might add.
The Rangers opened around +120 to win the series and are now down to -105 at some sportsbooks as sharps figure this to be a competitive series.
If Baltimore wins Game 1, Texas is a great bet on the spread (+1.5 games) as this series should go four (+175) or five (+145) games.
I will go with Texas to win this round over Baltimore. Given the inexperience and explosive offenses, this could be the best matchup of the Division Series.
Nathan Eovaldi will be a key factor for Texas as he went 6.2 innings on 98 pitches with one earned run and eight strikeouts to no walks against Tampa Bay.
Jordan Montgomery and Dane Dunning figure to be the main rotational starters outside of Eovaldi, while Baltimore’s big four are Kyle Bradish, Kyle Gibson, John Means, and Dean Kremer. I expect plenty of runs in this series and great live betting opportunities.
There have only been four times since 1985 that the two teams with the best record from the AL and NL meet in the World Series, and I like Atlanta, and they are the favorites for the World Series, so odds are Baltimore won’t make it.
Pick: Rangers (-105)
Houston Astros (-160) vs. Minnesota Twins (+135)
The Houston Astros have made six straight ALCS appearances, so the Minnesota Twins will have their work cut out for them.
Minnesota is one of two teams (Texas) to have a losing record on the road during the regular season, but luckily Houston is the only team in the postseason with a losing home record.
Both pitching staffs have top 10 ranks in ERA, strikeouts, and OBA, plus the offenses are top 10 in homers, SLG, and runs scored.
Minnesota only allowed one earned run in two games to Toronto, but on the contrary, the Twins only scored five total runs. I expect this to be a low-scoring series with late-inning rallies and an extra-inning game or two.
This could and should be a back-and-forth series, and while I expect Houston to win, this is October and the Twins are here to shake things up. Houston’s AL run of dominance will end at some point, and it could be here.
I like the Twins +1.5 on the series spread (-175) over the Astros to win the series outright at a similar price (-160). Minnesota went 4-2 versus Houston this season with the Twins winning both series.
Pick: Twins +1.5 (-175)
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