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How to bet the Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies matchup

Sandy Alcantara

Sandy Alcantara

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the first meeting between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies this season.

Marlins (-112) at Phillies (-104): O/U 7.5

Sandy Alcantara is coming off his first 9.0 inning performance of the season and in 2023, he followed most of those performances up with another stellar outing.

Alcantara will attempt do that again on the road in Philly after Miami beat the Mets 7-2 in New York on Sunday.

The Phillies lost on Sunday 6-4 to the Reds at home and will toss Matt Strahm on the mound. Strahm has only started two games since 2021 and went 1.1 (2021) and 4.0 innings (2023).

Strahm is mostly a relief pitcher, so I really like the pitching edge for Miami.

Philadelphia’s lineup has faced Alcantara plenty of times in his career, 169 plate appearances to be exact, but he does own a 25.9% whiff percentage, 18.9% strikeout percentage and 5.3% walk percentage versus the Phillies.

The Phillies are 26th in RBIs (28) and home runs (7), plus have the second-fewest walks in the league (22) and the fourth-most strikeouts (92). Miami isn’t much better, but with the pitching edge, I like the Marlins at this price.

I played Miami’s ML at -112 odds and would go out to -140 for this. I expect line movement in the Marlins favor.

Pick: Marlins ML (1u)

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