Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in Game 2 of the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees series.
Yankees (+115) at Mariners (-135): O/U 7.0
New York has scored 10 runs in each of their last two games and yet...are underdogs here at the Mariners!
New York beat Seattle 10-4 yesterday after traveling across country to take on the Mariners. I expect Seattle to even up the series and when digging deeper about the Yankees last two games, there is a trend worth playing here on the Mariners.
Since the start of 2017, there have been 56 teams that scored 10 or more runs in two-straight games and were an underdog in the third game, attempting to make it three-straight games at 10-plus runs.
Historically, those teams in the same role as New York are 18-38 on the ML (32.1%), so not profitable whatsoever.
With the total set at 7.0, this indicates one or both offenses should struggle and with the Yankees fitting that trend, I will bank on New York being the struggling offense tonight.
Logan Gilbert will pitch for Seattle and he has 40 plate appearances versus the Yankees’ current hitters with a .250 BA.
Interestingly enough, Gilbert allowed 17 hits and 13 earned runs in his last two starts versus the Yankees, so being a favorite here is more than telling. Alternatively, at home this year, Gilbert owns a 3.04 ERA and .160 OBA, so he’s been shutting down opposing offenses on Seattle’s mound.
Nestor Cortes has a 6.00 ERA on the road this season and 19 hits with 14 earned runs over 21.0 innings. He is 2-2 in those four road starts and recorded 10 strikeouts but three earned runs over 6.0 innings at Seattle last season.
Current Seattle hitters own a .324 OBA and .471 SLG against Cortes over 39 plate appearances, so I tend to give the Mariners the pitching advantage considering Cortes also allowed 21 earned runs over his past five starts.
I grabbed the Mariners ML at -135 odds and would go out to -150. Expect a bounce back performance from Seattle and a strong outing from Gilbert.
Pick: Mariners ML (1u)
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