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AL CY Young: Lance Lynn (-125)
Back on July 14th, I told you to fade Gerrit Cole (-125) and buy into Lance Lynn at +400 and Carlos Rodon at +220.
Well, currently, Lynn sits at -125, Cole at +225 and Rodon +325, per PointsBet.
Value baby, value.
At the time, I recommended you to risk anywhere from a half-unit to a full-unit on Lynn. If you did that already, you are the favorite to quadruple your return either way. If you did not take Lynn, now is the final time.
PointsBet had Lynn at +100 Tuesday before our live recording of Bet The Edge but moved to -125 on air. With Cole getting COVID among the Yankees’ recent outbreak, Lynn will have a stronghold over Cole for the AL CY Young.
There is no timetable on how many starts Cole could miss, but Lynn has two fewer starts than Cole and is scheduled to pitch this weekend.
Lynn will enter his next start with the MLB’s lowest ERA (2.07) and a 10-3 record in 19 starts. At home, Lynn has been an animal. He owns a 1.77 ERA and .183 OBA, along with a 6-2 record over 12 starts.
The White Sox’s arguably best offseason acquisition recently signed a two-year $38 million extension on July 18th. Since then, he is 1-0 in three starts with 18.0 innings pitched and five earned runs to 17 strikeouts and two walks.
Lynn has been a surprise as no one expected a CY Young season from the 34-year-old. Last season he started 13 games and had 31 earned runs (3.32 ERA) compared to this season, where he has 19 starts and only 25 earned runs.
Lynn opened the season at +1800 back on February 10th, per NBC’s future model. Tuesday was the first time he has become the favorite or gone past +100 odds.
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For the remainder of the season, Chicago owns the 11th easiest strength of schedule remaining (.494) per tankathon. The White Sox still have series against the Cubs, Rangers, Royals, Tigers, Pirates and Twins.
On the season, Lynn owns a 1.50 ERA versus the Tigers and Twins and a .000 ERA against the Royals. He has not pitched versus the Cubs, Rangers or Pirates this season, but he should have no issues facing all three at the arguably best time of the season to play non-playoff teams.
With Lynn coming off his best month of another dominant month, but statistically, August has been Lynn’s worth month of his career. He owns a 3.69 ERA in 51 games, which is not terrible by any means.
Teammate Lucas Giolito owns a 3.67 ERA this season, and Rockies’ German Marquez sits at 3.51 ERA, so I will not blink an eye and back Lynn for the final time as the 2021 AL CY Young.
Pick: Lance Lynn to win AL CY Young (1u)
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