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MLB K Props, September 23rd: Patrick Corbin, Charlie Morton O/U Ks

Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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Patrick Corbin O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds

I don’t have many rules in life, but when you get a 5.5 strikeout prop on Patrick Corbin, playing that should probably be one of them.

Corbin has recorded six or more strikeouts in six out of 29 games (20.6%). Yes, that is right, only a 20% hit rate to the Over. Cincy is middle of the pack with 51 strikeouts (T-14th) and 21 walks (T-12th) in the last six games.

Eight of the last 10 LHP went Under 5.5 strikeouts (80%) against the Reds and 11 of the past 15 (73.3%), per statmuse.

CIN game log

CIN game log

Corbin has plenty of experience versus the Reds despite not seeing them this season. Corbin has pitched to Joey Votto 26 times (5 Ks), Eugenio Suarez 17 times (4 Ks), Asdrubal Cabrera 14 times (5 Ks), Tucker Barnhart nine times (3 Ks) and Kyle Farmer eight times (1 K).

While the group does not have the best batting average versus Corbin, only two LHP of the last 10 made it 6.0 innings, which is a negative for him.

When Corbin goes 6.0 innings or less, he has hit the Under 5.5 Ks in 20 out of 22 starts (90.9%), per NBC’s player prop model.

His two Overs were against the Mets and Marlins in back-to-back starts.

Patrick Corbin at 6 iP or less

Patrick Corbin at 6 iP or less

At 6.0 innings or less, that is 10 straight Unders at this number and 7-3 (70%) to the Under 4.5 strikeout number.

Corbin sports a 6.05 ERA on the road, .262 OBA and 55 strikeouts in 74.1 innings. That is a 0.74 strikeout per average, giving him 3.7 Ks after 5.0 innings.

In the last 30 days and September, he has a 0.72-0.77 strikeout per inning average, so not much of a difference.

He will need a dominant performance or 6.0-plus innings to hit the Over, so play the Under 5.5 strikeouts down to the 4.5 for +100 or better.

Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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Charlie Morton O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Diamondbacks

Charlie Morton has had a rough September, but I can forgive and forget when you break it down.

In two of the three Under 6.5 K performances this month, Morton recorded three Ks at San Francisco and four strikeouts at Colorado (Coors Field). Well, no surprises there. In the lone Over, he had seven Ks against the Marlins, another non-surprise.

So what are we talking about here? Well, I expect Morton to resemble his August self when he had 46 strikeouts to seven walks over 35.0 innings.

Since June, when Morton pitches at least 5.0 innings, he has cashed the Over 6.5 strikeouts in 13 out of 18 starts (72.2%), per NBC’s player prop model and hit rate charts.

Charlie Morton 6/1 at 5 IP+

Charlie Morton 6/1 at 5 IP+

Since June, when he goes 6.0 innings or more, Morton is 11-2 (84.6%) to the Over!

He is 15-3 on the season (83.3%) at 6-plus innings, which is pictured below. He averages 7.5 Ks in those starts.

Morton AT 6 IP

Morton AT 6 IP

Which takes me to my next point. Morton’s last start under 5.0 innings was on June 11th, 18 starts ago. In the previous 17 starts, Morton has reached 6.0 innings in 13 games (76.4%).

Four of the last seven RHP versus the DBacks have at least six strikeouts per statmuse, so if Morton goes 6.0 innings, this should be a hitter.

Morton last faced Arizona in 2019 and totaled eight strikeouts in 5.0 innings. I expect 6.0 innings here and when he does that, the veteran has had tons of success on the Over 6.5 strikeout prop.

I got this at +116 and would play it out to -130. I was surprised to get + money, but then again, the Rockies and Giants’ starts gave us this value.

I should have more plays today, so check back here and @VmoneySports on Twitter.

Pick: Charlie Morton Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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