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Luis Castillo O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Royals
The Reds’ Luis Castillo has a line prop line! After two straight outings of six strikeouts after three consecutive seven K performances, Castillo now has a 5.5 prop line.
I played a few Unders on Castillo this year, including his last start versus the Padres. However, I see value on the Over now.
Castillo changed a lot in his pitching arsenal over June. Over May, Castillo had an 8.04 ERA and 0-6 record in six starts. In June, Castillo posted a 1.71 ERA and 2-2 record in five starts.
Castillo added the sinker to his repertoire, and that improved his strikeout numbers drastically. The change also assisted him in his command, and as a result, Castillo’s chase and miss % raised to its highest average all season at 50% in his last start per baseballsavant.com.
Now that this line is 5.5, Castillo has hit the Over on this prop in his last five starts. Those starts came against the Padres (6, 7), Braves (6) and Brewers (7, 7) as seen in this graph by props.cash.
Castillo averaged 6.6 strikeouts per game in that five-start span, with 33 strikeouts and 14 walks in 32 innings.
Luckily for Castillo, the Royals do not walk much at all. On the season, Kansas City walks 7.8% of the time (26th) and 6.5% (29th) over the past 30 days. The wRC+ is also far below the league average at 88 (24th) on the season and 82 (27th) over the last month.
NBC’s model projects Castillo to record 6.9 strikeouts in 6.2 innings pitched. When Castillo goes 6.0 innings, he averages 6.0 strikeouts, hitting the Over four out of six times (66.6%).
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When RHP goes 5.0 innings or longer on the year, they are 10-8 (55.5%) to the Over 5.5 strikeout prop versus the Royals.
However, when they go 6.0 innings-plus, they are 9-3 (75%) to the Over against Kansas City per statmuse.
Castillo has gone at least 5.0 innings in nine straight starts and 5.2 or longer in six straight for the Reds. The Royals have allowed nine of the past 10 RHP to go at least 5.0 innings against them.
Three of the last four RHP have gone Over 5.5 strikeouts against the Royals, and they all went 6.0 innings or longer. That will be the key.
Ride Castillo to go Over this 5.5 strikeout total in what should be a tightly contested game.
Pick: Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts
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