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Yesterday was the absolute best-case scenario. My two dark horses both won (Oklahoma and Texas A&M), which means if TAMU beats Notre Dame on Tuesday, both of those teams will square off for the right to go to the ‘chip on that side of the bracket. So let’s go Aggies. We have a little two-play card for Monday. Let’s go.
Quick piece of advice for any type of bets for College Baseball: shop around. A lot of different books are hanging mispriced numbers, so you can take advantage of them.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
Ole Miss Rebels (-105) @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-115) | Over/Under 10 (1)
Two of my fade-list teams square up in a gigantic showdown to determine who moves to 2-0 and one win away from the College World Series Finals. It’s just so bizarre because neither team was playing good baseball heading into the tournament, which was a huge reason why I gave them the “Mutombo.” On a dime though -- with the help of some easy draws -- they completely turned it around. It’s an SEC battle that could feature a pitching duel between Hunter Elliott and either Will McEntire or Zach Morris (no, not that one).
The Rebels are 6-0 in the tournament thus far, so it’s hard to imagine they could be doing much better. As it stands, they are throwing the baby freshman, Hunter Elliott, today and could be set up yet again for another great outing from their starting pitching. Since April 30th against this same Razorbacks team, Elliott has turned it on with only 10 earned runs and 47 punchouts in his last six starts (36 innings). Though Ole Miss lost that late April series to the Razorbacks, it was extremely close, getting outscored 12-10 overall. Not to mention, the Rebs were not the same team they have been. As a matter of fact, since that lost series to Arkansas, Ole Miss is 14-3. The pitching for this team has been outstanding, having only allowed one run in their last three contests. If the offense, led by the captain Tim Elko, Jacob Gonzalez, Kemp Alderman, can keep it going, then the Rebels should be able to pull it out against Arkansas’ strong pitching.
I’m not totally sure if it’s going to be McEntire or Morris, but what I do know is this team can pitch either way. The bullpen is the one true thing I highlighted throughout the year, even when I explained why I had them on the fade list. If it is McEntire, then he is certainly capable of going five or even six innings as he has done from time to time this year. Morris, on the other hand, is more of an opening three-inning kind of guy. Regardless, I expect the pitching to keep their team in the game. The timely hitting from the Razorbacks has been keeping this team alive. Players like Cayden Wallace, Brady Slavens and Peyton Stovall are finding ways to get it done in the clutch. What I will be curious to see is how this lineup fares against a pitcher whose team has won his last five starts.
We have a legit pick ’em here; a battle between familiar foes that really could go either way. Who will blink first? Arkansas has made a fool out of me this postseason for betting against them, but you could make the same case for Ole Miss. It seems like there is a slight edge in starting pitching for the Rebs, so I think they manage to steal a close one today.
PREDICTION: Ole Miss ML (-105)
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Auburn Tigers (+135) @ Stanford Cardinal (-155) | Over/Under 12 (2)
Who goes home today: Stanford or Auburn? Both teams have had a great season thus far, but it won’t make losing this game any less painful. It seems we have Trace Bright on the mound for Auburn, while Stanford may be throwing lefty Drew Dowd. So who moves on?
Those Auburn Tigers made a run I did not think they would be able to make. Their offense was unbelievable over the first four games or so to start postseason play. Unfortunately it turned back into what I thought it was going to be: a one-man show. SEC Co-Player of the Year, Sonny DiChiara, is Auburn’s offense and it’s become a glaring issue seeing how they have only plated eight runs over their last three contests. If the Tigers want to move on, then other guys will need to step up. Pitching wise, Bright has not been that bright lately, allowing eight earned runs over his last two outings (5.2 IP). Against a wagon of an offense like Stanford’s, today is not the day to be off. The Tigers have some solid arms waiting in the wings like Mason Barnett, Carson Skipper, lock-down closer in Blake Burkhalter, and even Game One starter Joe Gonzalez if Bright should falter. However, if he can deliver a strong outing, then it could knock the Cardinal back on their heels.
Stanford, what are we doing here? This team is similar to how I was in college when I had to write a paper; I loved waiting until the 11th hour. The Cardinal (and I don’t know how or why it’s not the “Cardinals,”) absolutely love to no-show until their backs are against the wall. They completely embarrassed themselves the other day against Arkansas. Today though, it should be a different story because everything is on the line. With Dowd likely getting the ball, it’s looking like a bullpen game. Seeing how Dowd is a two-or-three inning guy, Stanford’s pen will have to perform better than it has. This offense also needs to get things rolling, and that starts with future first-round superstar, Brock Jones. This Cardinal lineup is one of the best in the entire country, so they should start playing like it. I have been hard on Stanford all year, saying they are very good, but not great, beatable if you will. It’s time they prove me wrong.
Auburn has truly had a great run this season. However, Stanford is the better team, and if they decide to actually show up today, they should drop a 50 bomb. Realistically though, the Cardinal could put up 10-12 runs today. I like the Over and I love Stanford to win, but laying this price is outrageous. I think they win with margin at plus money.
PREDICTION: Stanford RL -1.5 (+115)
Enjoy the taste, kid
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