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I’m offering up five bets in my betting package this week. I love this card and there is value on plenty of these props. This card is in Las Vegas at the T-Mobile Arena. Follow me on Twitter to get any plays I may tweet out on Saturday, fight news, and my takes on the card. You can find me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC and please also follow Ike Feldman @IkeFeldman, my Combat Sports partner for NBC Sports Edge Betting @NBCSportsEdge.
Prelim Prop #1: Matthew Semelsberger by KO/TKO -130
Semelsberger is a UFC-level striker with some power, Martin Sano is not. Sano hasn’t fought in four years and is on this card because he trains with Nick Diaz. Semelsberger is going to outclass him on the feet. I expect Sano to look for takedowns to give himself a chance to survive.
Prelim Straight Play: Jalin Turner +105
Jalin Turner is going to have a 2-inch height advantage and a 6-inch reach advantage in a fight I expect to play out on the feet. Turner may very well have the grappling advantage also and finishing upside on the ground if it gets there. Uros Medic is from the Alaskan fight scene and hasn’t fought a great level of competition. I see Turner knocking this hype train off the tracks. I like the plus money on Turner to win the fight but I think he finishes Uros here so other betting options include (1) Turner by Sub or KO/TKO (or) (2) Turner/Under 2.5 rounds since Uros has only seen Round 2 on one other occasion. Turner should use patience and his experience to get the win; and his jab![[ad:athena]]
Prelim Prop #2: Chris Daukaus/Under 2.5 Rounds +136
Chris Daukaus is fighting a 40-year-old Shamil Abduakhimov who hasn’t fought in two years. Daukaus is a BJJ black belt and a volume striker with power. I expect Daukaus to pressure Shamil and make him fight off his back foot for as long as it lasts. Shamil has had 5 fights cancelled in those two years and this is the third time he’s been booked vs Daukaus. Chris Daukaus is training full time and should continue his upward climb in the rankings with a win here.
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Prelim Prop #3: Merab Dvalishvili to Win in Round 3 or Decision -114
I was surprised to see Merab Dvalishvili priced as a -260 favorite. I believe I found a prop bet here that accounts for 90% of his win equity. Merab is a wrestler who grinds on you for 15 minutes. He has won his last six UFC fights by decision. His opponent Marlon Moraes is very good but he has gas tank issues which play right into Merab’s relentless style. Styles make fights and this is that striker vs grappler matchup you hear about in MMA all the time. Marlon has a few minutes in round 1 to connect on a fight-ending strike, possibly a head kick if he is to win this fight. Once the Merab takedown barrage starts he will drain Marlon’s gas tank in what could be a 3rd round finish or decision victory.
Co-Main Event Prop Play: Valentina Shevchenko by KO/TKO -130
Valentina Shevchenko has a stranglehold on the Women’s Flyweight Division. This will be her seventh title fight in the division that she has dominated. I believe Shevchenko will use round 1 to get her distance locked in and should be able to finish Lauren Murphy in rounds 2 or 3. Murphy will try to clinch and use her strength but Shevchenko is too fast and skilled for that to be effective for a long period of time. Shevchenko on the feet can finish this fight and she has also proved to be a finisher from top control. Shevchenko should win this fight within 3 rounds.
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My passion project, the #UFC Fight Night Statistical Companion, is now updated for #UFC266 Volkanovski vs Ortega!
— Nate Latshaw (@NateLatshaw) September 19, 2021
Explore comprehensive @ufc statistics for the entire card via a suite of interactive data viz tools - 100% free! #MMATwitter
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