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With no race last week, two events aged out of the Power Rankings formula. For consistent periods through the season, we look at the strength of drivers over the past 45 days and this week, the pair of rough-surfaced tracks Dover Motor Speedway and Darlington Raceway were replaced with Nashville Superspeedway – another course that is tough on tires.
The past 45 days is fairly representative of the season with two similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, an intermediate, flat track, a road course, and one rough track. The only thing missing is a pack-racing lottery and there is one on the horizon in two weeks at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Sonoma Raceway was a disruptor in which several strong contenders suffered mistakes or bad strategy calls, but many of those hapless drivers were back in contention in the Ally 400. Last week’s race also had a set of challenges with a late-race caution for the blown engine on Josh Bilicki’s car. As in California, Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) rolled the dice on the wrong strategy and the three most dominant cars all finished outside the top five.
Now it’s time for another road course at Road America with Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Watkins Glen International coming up in the next eight weeks. Toss in two pack races at Atlanta and Daytona International Speedway, and this stage of the season is going to be wide open.
Top 10
1. Ross Chastain (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 13
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 7.03
During an incredibly long interview during one of the weather delays at Nashville, we got to see some of the inner workings of Chastain. As his aggression continues to be a storyline, he needs decide what kind of driver he wants to become. He is learning to balance the instinct to attack with patience. If he can find that fine line and Trackhouse Racing continues to field strong cars, he is going to be one of NASCAR’s great drivers.
2. Kyle Larson (Last week: 5) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 8.24
Larson benefits this week by Darlington aging out of the formula. In the past 45 days, he has a perfect record of top-15 finishes, including a 15th at Sonoma when he lost a wheel after a stop for service and had to make an extra trip down pit road. Larson is batting a little over .500 regarding top-10s this year, but he has not been dominant. A large part of the reason for that is the NextGen car.
3. Kyle Busch (Last week: 2) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 8.93
Busch was the victim of the wrong strategy call two weeks in a row and finished outside the top 20 in back-to-back races. He had one of the strongest cars last week at Nashville, however, and would easily have scored a top-five if he had stayed out and not gambled on a two-tire stop. His Average Running Position of 7.19 was third-best at Nashville and with the seventh-best Driver Rating, he didn’t slide very far down the list.
4. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 10) +6
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (All-Star)
Power Average: 9.29
Blaney had a seesaw race in Nashville. He had one of the strongest cars when the sun was shining, but lost the handle as the track cooled. In the end, he was among the top five when the checkers waved and now has three consecutive races of sixth or better. The battle to make the Championship 16 is still intense, but with a repeat winner in the Ally 400, at least his situation did not worsen.
5. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 4) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Power Average: 10.17
For much of the Ally 400 it appeared Truex would get his first win of 2022 in the same week that he announced he will return to JGR next year. The decision to pit with a handful of laps remaining didn’t work out for Truex as he was shuffled back to 22nd at the close, but like his teammate Busch, the driver of the No. 19 was strong enough during the race to keep him among the Power Ranking leaders. And like Blaney, he is high enough in the points to not have to worry for another week since there was a repeat winner at Nashville.
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6. Joey Logano (Last week: 6)
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 2 (Darlington 1, Gateway)
Power Average: 10.52
One reason to do the Power Rankings each week is to help identify overall strength when drivers have up and down results. Logano is barely above the .500 mark regarding top-15s this season as we close in on the halfway point of 2022, but his two wins put him in an enviable position where the playoffs are concerned. Last week, he was up and down during the race with 11th-place rankings in Average Running Position and Driver Rating, but he eked out a top-10 at the checkers.
7. Christopher Bell (Last week: 3) -4
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Power Average: 10.93
Disregarding the errant strategy at Sonoma, Bell is riding a six-race streak of top-10s on ovals after finishing eighth in Nashville. He keeps getting close to winning, but the parity created by the NextGen car makes it difficult to predict if or when a victory will come. For now, he and his fans need to take consolation in the fact that he is running strong.
8. Kurt Busch (Last week: 20) +12
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Wins: 1 (Kansas 1)
Power Average: 11.46
Busch is the biggest beneficiary of Dover and Darlington aging out of the formula this week because he was outside the top 25 in both of those races. Immediately afterward, he won at Kansas Speedway to secure a provisional invite to the playoffs. He was one of the lowest ranked drivers with a win, but a third- and second-place finish in the last two oval races caused him to rocket up the Power Rankings and climb higher in the points. He is now eight above the bubble.
9. Denny Hamlin (Last week: 8) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 3
Wins: 2 (Richmond 1, Charlotte oval)
Power Average: 11.48
It is too soon to trust Hamlin will get consistent finishes, but in the past 45 days, he earned three results of sixth or better when he’s managed to avoid trouble. The biggest concern is that Hamlin has finished out the top 20 in the last 10 races. He got off to a slow start and has not yet gained momentum, but with nine races remaining in the regular season, there is still time. Even with his uneven performance, he would be within one point of the No. 1 seed if the playoffs began next week – in a virtual tie with four other drivers.
10. Chase Elliott (Last week: 7) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Weeks as #1: 7
Wins: 2 (Dover, Nashville)
Power Average: 12.57
After Sonoma, we said that Elliott would need a strong showing at Nashville to remain in the top 10 because his Dover win and Darlington top-five were about to age out of the formula. His victory was barely enough to offset three consecutive sub-20th-place results at Kansas, Charlotte Motor Speedway, and World Wide Technology Raceway. As those drop from consideration, he should move back up the chart and with two wins to his credit, he is officially in the playoffs.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: William Byron [2] (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1), Austin Cindric (Daytona 1), Alex Bowman (Las Vegas), Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1), and Daniel Suarez (Sonoma).
Dropped from the Top 10
11. Kevin Harvick (Last week: 9) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Power Average: 12.97
Harvick had a strong run at Nashville and hovered on the edge of competitiveness. His 10th-place finish kept his playoff hopes alive if there is not another first-time winner and the bubble moves. Harvick may not need to worry about points if he can get a win and considering that he now has six top-10s in his last eight starts, that is not out of the question.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Ally 400, Chase Elliott (+900)
Save Mart 350k, Daniel Suarez (+1400)
Enjoy Illinois 300, Joey Logano (+850)
Coke 600, Denny Hamlin (+1200)
All-Star Race, Ryan Blaney (+1000)
AdventHealth 400, Kurt Busch (+2000)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 7.03 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 8.24 | 5 | 3 | |
3. | 8.93 | 2 | -1 | |
4. | 9.29 | 10 | 6 | |
5. | 10.17 | 4 | -1 | |
6. | 10.52 | 6 | 0 | |
7. | 10.93 | 3 | -4 | |
8. | 11.46 | 20 | 12 | |
9. | 11.48 | 8 | -1 | |
10. | 12.57 | 7 | -3 | |
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 12.97 | 9 | -2 | |
12. | 13.11 | 12 | 0 | |
13. | 13.75 | 16 | 3 | |
14. | 13.88 | 22 | 8 | |
15. | 14.85 | 14 | -1 | |
16. | 14.88 | 11 | -5 | |
17. | 15.32 | 17 | 0 | |
18. | 15.78 | 21 | 3 | |
19. | 15.82 | 23 | 4 | |
20. | 16.12 | 13 | -7 | |
21. | 16.55 | 24 | 3 | |
22. | 16.65 | 19 | -3 | |
23. | 17.13 | 17 | -6 | |
24. | 17.77 | 15 | -9 | |
25. | 17.95 | 26 | 1 | |
26. | 21.00 | 25 | -1 | |
27. | 21.22 | 29 | 2 | |
28. | 21.25 | 28 | 0 | |
29. | 21.80 | 30 | 1 | |
30. | 22.96 | 31 | 1 | |
31. | 24.00 | 32 | 1 | |
32. | 24.05 | 34 | 2 | |
33. | 24.57 | 27 | -6 | |
33. | 24.57 | 33 | 0 | |
35. | 29.60 | 39 | 4 | |
35. | 29.60 | 36 | 1 | |
37. | 29.68 | 38 | 1 | |
38. | 30.81 | 37 | -1 | |
39. | 31.13 | 43 | 4 | |
40. | 31.50 | 40 | 0 | |
41. | 31.75 | 42 | 1 | |
42. | 33.40 | 45 | 3 | |
43. | 36.40 | 41 | -2 |
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2022, After Week 12 [Darlington 1]
After Week 11 [Dover]
2021, After Week 17 [Nashville]
