NASCAR knew what madness they would unleash when they put the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway on the schedule as the final, regular season race. Last year, this edition of the race did not have much more carnage than any other carburetor-restricted superspeedway event – and, for more that matter, for than 90 percent of last weekend’s race, the event was relatively calm.
Everyone knew intensity was going to pick up in the closing laps and when Chase Elliott threw a block on Matt DiBenedetto late in the race, the gloves came off. Another massive crash was triggered by Kurt Busch at the end of the show and when the smoke cleared, as unlikely an assemblage of racers occupied the top 10 as you will ever see in big league stock car racing.
And this is another one of several reasons that we track strength-based stats. On the plate tracks, strategy comes into play, but even Kyle Larson — who chose to run in the back half the field for most of the day – nevertheless had an average running position that placed him in the front half of the pack while a few of the top-10 finishers were outside the top 20 most of the evening.
Luckily – for those of us who make a living trying to make sense of this stuff – there is only one more carburetor-restricted superspeedway race remaining on the schedule.
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Top 10
1. Chase Elliott (last week: 3) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 27
Weeks as #1: 5
Cup wins: 2 (COTA, Road America)
Power Average: 5.71
A late-race miscalculation last week cost Elliott a shot at Victory Lane and the five bonus points that go along with that, but when Kurt Busch triggered a massive crash on the final lap by bumping Daniel Suarez into a spin, Elliott managed to salvage a top-10. Along the way, he had the best Average Running Position, Driver Rating, and most laps in the top 15. He narrowly edges Kyle Larson for the top spot this week, but to contend for the championship he is going to have to improve on unrestricted speedways.
2. Kyle Larson (last week: 1) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 23
Weeks as #1: 9
Cup wins: 5 (Las Vegas 1, Charlotte, Sonoma, Nashville, Watkins Glen)
Power Average: 5.72
You may as well think of Elliott and Larson as co-leaders this week. The difference of .01 average point is minimal, especially when one considers that Larson’s modest stats last week were on purpose. He chose to hang out at the back of the pack and race conservatively. If he had not been swept into the final ‘Big One’ accident, he would have finished in the top 10. He doesn’t believe he lost any momentum, and neither should you.
3. Ryan Blaney (last week: 2) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Cup wins: 3 (Atlanta 1, Michigan, Daytona 2)
Power Average: 6.07
Blaney’s back-to-back wins at Michigan International Speedway and Daytona gives him a ton of momentum entering the playoffs. More importantly, it added 10 bonus points to his total and gives him a much better shot at advancing to at the least the Round or 8. His Daytona win comes on the heels of five top-five finishes in the last six weeks and if not for a modest effort at Watkins Glen International, he might be the Power Rankings’ leader.
4. Denny Hamlin (last week: 4)
Weeks in the top 10: 27
Weeks as #1: 8
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 7.00
The past is the past. No one knows that better than NASCAR drivers and even if he is disappointed to lose the regular season championship, Hamlin will head into Darlington believing he can win. He has a reason to be confident with one victory there last year and top-five this spring. Eventually, he is going to have to win to advance through the next three rounds of the championship, however, and if it does not happen at Darlington, he may start to slip down the order.
5. Matt DiBenedetto (last week: 5)
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 10.50
The Power Rankings track recent momentum over a 45-day period of time. DiBenedetto didn’t win a regular season race, but he came on strong from Road America through last week and he actually had a shot at winning in Daytona. For the next 10 weeks he is going to be out to prove he should remain in the NASCAR Cup series. Even though he is not chasing the championship, it is going to be incredibly interesting to see if he can run with the Top 16 in the next several races – or if he is going to develop short timer’s disease and fade.
6. Kevin Harvick (last week: 8) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 19
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 11.07
Harvick may well feel that the Coke Zero Sugar 400 was a microcosm of his season. He was minding his business and planning on how to mount a charge to the front with the checkered flag in sight when another car rammed into his side – sending him into the wall and limping to the finish line. Now he enters the weekend with the fewest points among the top 16 and could easily get eliminated in three races if he does not find a way to challenge for top-fives in every event of Round 1.
7. Christopher Bell (last week: 11) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Cup wins: 1 (Daytona Road)
Power Average: 11.24
After a one-week hiatus, Bell is back inside the top 10, but with a 36th on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course and last week’s 32nd at Daytona, he might not last long. Both of these modest results were caused by accidents. The intensity is about to ratchet up several notches and it will be challenging to see if Bell can advance past the Round of 16.
8. Martin Truex, Jr. (last week: 9) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 19
Weeks as #1: 2
Cup wins: 3 (Phoenix 1, Martinsville 1, Darlington 1)
Power Average: 11.81
One of the benefits of crashing on a superspeedway is that any driver, who has paid attention since the late-1980s when NASCAR implemented restricted plates, knows that it’s likely to happen. You go into those races expecting to finish badly. A 29th at Daytona won’t have much of an impact on Truex, but the fact remains he has only three top-fives in his last 14 starts and if he wants to have a shot at the Cup, that will not be sufficient.
9. William Byron (last week: 12) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 1 (Homestead)
Power Average: 11.89
All the positioning for a place in the Round of 16 is in the past. The three-race, mini-seasons each driver faces during the next nine weeks, changes the game. Occasional strength will not be nearly as important as sustaining momentum. Byron has been strong on several occasions, but he has also finished 20th or worse in four of his last five races.
10. Tyler Reddick (last week: 7) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 15
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 12.16
Reddick took the final position on points and deserves a ton of credit for being among the Power Rankings top-10 in 15 of the first 26 weeks. It seems he is slowly becoming frayed at the edges, however. If he wants to be relevant over the next three races, he is going to need to dig deep and start scoring top-10s on a regular basis again. In the last 45 days, he has only two of those in five events.
Other drivers with wins, not among the top 10: Alex Bowman ([3] Richmond 1, Dover 1, and Pocono 1), Kyle Busch ([2] Kansas 1, Pocono 2), Joey Logano (Bristol dirt), William Byron (Homestead), Michael McDowell (Daytona 1), Christopher Bell (Daytona road), Brad Keselowski (Talladega 1), Kurt Busch (Atlanta2), Aric Almirola (New Hampshire), and AJ Allmendinger (Indy Road).
Dropped from the Top 10
11. Kyle Busch (last week: 10) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 25
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 2 (Kansas 1, Pocono 2)
Power Average: 12.50
It’s difficult to know exactly what is on Busch’s mind since he is equally surly when he finishes second as when he crashes. As the numbers work out, however, he barely gets kicked out of the top 10 this week with three results of 20th or worse in his last five races. To go far in the playoffs, he needs the kind of momentum he had from the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) this summer through Atlanta 2. It’s a coin toss as to whether that is going to happen.
12. Kurt Busch (last week: 10) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 8
Cup wins: 1 (Atlanta 2)
Power Average: 12.81
Last week just prior to the Coke Zero Sugar 400, it was announced that Trackhouse Racing added a second car so Busch and Monster Energy can stay in the series. With that, Busch is now racing to develop momentum for 2022 and the question is how well he is going to keep his eye on the prize.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Opening Outright Odds to win)
Daytona 2, Ryan Blaney (+1400)
Michigan, Ryan Blaney (+1800)
Indy Road, AJ Allmendinger (+3000)
Watkins Glen, Kyle Larson (+475)
New Hampshire, Aric Almirola (-9000)
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Power Average, Last 45 Days
This Week | Driver | Power Avg. | Last Week | Difference |
1. | 5.71 | 3 | 2 | |
2. | 5.72 | 1 | -1 | |
3. | 6.07 | 2 | -1 | |
4. | 7.00 | 4 | 0 | |
5. | 10.50 | 5 | 0 | |
6. | 11.07 | 8 | 2 | |
7. | 11.24 | 11 | 4 | |
8. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 11.81 | 9 | 1 |
9. | 11.89 | 12 | 3 | |
10. | 12.16 | 7 | -3 | |
| ||||
11. | 12.50 | 10 | -1 | |
12. | 12.81 | 6 | -6 | |
13. | Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 14.52 | 21 | 8 |
14. | 14.58 | 15 | 1 | |
15. | 14.88 | 13 | -2 | |
16. | 15.04 | 17 | 1 | |
17. | 15.21 | 16 | -1 | |
18. | 15.48 | 14 | -4 | |
19. | 17.08 | 18 | -1 | |
20. | 18.29 | 19 | -1 | |
21. | 18.35 | 20 | -1 | |
22. | 18.84 | 22 | 0 | |
23. | 20.62 | 25 | 2 | |
24. | 21.19 | 24 | 0 | |
25. | 21.33 | 23 | -2 | |
26. | 21.89 | 28 | 2 | |
27. | 22.50 | 26 | -1 | |
28. | 22.77 | 29 | 1 | |
29. | 24.48 | 27 | -2 | |
30. | 25.25 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 29.71 | 33 | 2 | |
32. | 30.33 | 36 | 4 | |
33. | 32.60 | 37 | 4 | |
34. | 32.74 | 40 | 6 | |
35. | 33.09 | 35 | 0 | |
36. | 33.25 | 38 | 2 | |
37. | 33.80 | 39 | 2 | |
38. | 34.00 | 41 | 3 | |
39. | 34.17 | 42 | 3 | |
40. | 35.56 | 43 | 3 |
