Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet Game 5 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics.
76ers at Celtics (-7): O/U 214.5
The Celtics have been bounce back monster this postseason at 3-0 ATS and they’ll need another performance like that in Boston during Game 5 agains the 76ers.
Being tied up 2-2 at home off a loss is a good spot to continue that trend. Last year, Boston was 7-0 ATS and on the ML before Games 4-5 and of the NBA Finals, so I will continue to back the Celtics off a loss.
In the first quarter after a loss, the Celtics outscored their opponents by 1, 8 and 10 points and scored 28, 35 and 35 points. In the first half, Boston scored 57, 65 and 68 points and led by 1, 8 and 12 points.
The book set Boston’s 1Q spread at -2.5 and Team Total at -28.5 compared to the 1H spread of -4.5 and the Team Total is 56.5 for the Celtics. I like the
Give me the Celtics trifecta spot in the 1Q, 1H and full game spreads, plus the first quarter Team Total Over 28.5. Big Boston guy over here for Game 5.
Pick: Celtics 1Q -2.5 (Risk 1u), Celtics 1Q Team Total Over 28.5 (1u), Celtics 1H -4.5 (Risk 1u), Celtics -7 (1u)
Jaylen Brown O/U 33.5 PRA vs. 76ers
Jaylen Brown had 31 PRA with about 7 minutes in the 4th quarter and didn’t record a single Point, Rebound or Assist the remainder of the game or OT. It was truly a bad beat.
The Celtics have to get him more involved and I thought that was evident down the stretch as Marcus Smart and Al Horford were the beneficiary to many of Jayson Tatum‘s passes. However, following a loss, we should expect Tatum and Brown to fill up the scoring column.
At home in the playoffs, Brown’s scored 25, 23 35, 18 and 29 points for 26.0 points per game, plus 6.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists for 35.8 PRA. Brown is 3-2 to the Under at home, but I like him to go Over 33.5 PRA after two-straight Unders at home and in Game 4.
So I like the Celtics trifecta and quick start in order to take Game 5, I rolled with Brown to go Over 33.5 PRA in the process at -125 odds and would go up to 34.5.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 33.5 PRA (1u)
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