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Jonas Valanciunas O/U 19.5 Points vs. Clippers
We run it back on the big man!
Jonas Valanciunas burnt us versus San Antonio using a huge 12-point third quarter and 17-point second-half to hit the Over. He had five points at halftime, talk about a bad beat.
However, that should have never happened and I don’t think he will repeat that performance.
Valanciunas has hit the Under 19.5 Points in 52 out of 75 games (69%) and eight of his last 10 (80%). From January 5, 2022 to now, JV has hit the Under 19.5 points 33 out of 40 times (83%), per NBC’s Edge Finder, which can be seen below.
The Clippers do a great job at defending big men (when they want to). L.A. shutdown Karl-Anthony Towns all season long and the last time these teams met, JV had eight points and nine rebounds in 21 minutes. Both Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum played in that game.
Valanciunas did record a 26-point and 39-point game versus the Clippers this season, but Amir Coffey and Nicolas Batum were the primary forwards outside of Ivica Zubac. Marcus Morris also did not play in two of the four contests between the Pelicans and Clippers.
In those two games that JV hit the Over, he made five and seven three-pointers on eight and nine attempts. The Clippers are going to play small ball, so Valanciunas will be inside more than outside, limiting his point potential.
The Clippers only allowed 36 points in the paint to the Spurs. Over the last 15 games Los Angeles allowed 51.7 per game, so clearly the Clippers are playing defense and forcing outside shots.
With Zubac, Morris, Batum, Isaiah Hartenstein and Serge Ibaka, I think going back to the well on Valanciunas Under 19.5 points is a wise bet.
I grabbed him Under 19.5 Points at -115 odds and would play out to -135 or the Under 18.5.
Pick: Jonas Valanciunas Under 19.5 Points (1u)
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