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Joel Embiid O/U 28.5 Points vs. Pacers
Joel Embiid is coming off a 40-point game on 14-of-25 (56%) from the field versus the Spurs and the 76ers lost!
The 76ers are 0-3 to start the season, so we should expect another big outing from Embiid here as he and James Harden are likely fed up.
Since 2018, Embiid has terrorized the Pacers. In the past six meetings, Embiid scored 41, 45, 24, 41, 32 and 33 points, per statmuse. This box score is pretty fun to look at, right?
The Pacers allow 122.0 points per game, which is the fourth-most in the NBA thus far. In the paint, Indiana is permitting 45.3 points per game so far (13th) and this will be the toughest test after facing the Wizards, Spurs and Pistons.
Indiana allowed Kyle Kuzma and Cade Cunningham to score 22 points, Saddiq Bey dropped 20 points, plus Josh Richardson posted 27 points, Jakob Poeltl had 21 points and Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell scored 23 points.
Embiid will be by far the best paint scorer Indiana has faced and if Poeltl scored 21, the sky is the limit for Embiid.
I grabbed Embiid at Over 28.5 points for -120 odds on DraftKings.
I would play this at 29.5 (-110) or the 30-plus points alternative on FanDuel.
Our player prop model projects Embiid to score 31.0 points in 34 minutes.
Pick: Joel Embiid Over 28.5 Points (1u)
DeMar DeRozan O/U 4.5 Assists vs. Celtics
When DeMar DeRozan is playing the Celtics at TD Garden, you bet his Over on points, that is a golden rule, but this game is in Chicago so we find another way to attack the Bulls star.
Over his last seven home games versus Boston, DeRozan hit four or more assists in six games and recorded five-plus assists in five of those seven. Only one game came with Chicago, but he recorded five assists in that effort.
Over his last five games versus the Celtics in general, DeRozan posted 5, 7, 2, 14 and 7 assists. So for +130 odds, there is 100-percent value to this Over.
This season, DeRozan has opened the season with 9, 6 and 1 assists, so this is a great-buy low spot off one assists versus Cleveland.
DeRozan averages 12.0 potential assists per game and posted 9.0 in the previous outing versus the Cavs but only one converted assist. Chicago was blown-out 128-96.
In the other two Bulls games, DeRozan had a 15 combined assists and we saw competitive games.
The previous game versus Cleveland also marked the first game with Zach LaVine in the lineup. With LaVine expected to play for a second-straight game, the offense will be more fluid and balanced.
I expect the Celtics to double team DeRozan at different points in this game, especially when he’s in his mid-range attempting to post up, which will open up his teammates.
I played DeRozan Over 4.5 assists at +130 odds on DraftKings. I’d play this down to +100.
Our player prop model projects DeRozan to record 4.8 assists, the highest projection for Chicago.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 4.5 Assists (1u)
Ja Morant O/U 28.5 Points vs. Nets
This prop isn’t out yet, but whatever it is, we’ll be on the Over.
In Morant’s last outing versus the Nets, Morant scored 36 points on 14-of-22 (63.6%) from the field. In his first career meeting against Brooklyn, Morant dropped 30 points, so he is no stranger to dropping buckets on the Nets.
This season Morant is off to another hot start with 34, 49 and 20 point efforts for 34.3 points per game.
Morant attempted 24 and 26 field goal attempts in the first two games but only 12 in the blowout loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
This is a bounce back game for Morant and the Grizzlies, which makes this more enticing.
Morant had one home game this year, the season-opener versus the Knicks, and he scored 34 points. Last year, Morant averaged 27.2 points per game and scored 30 points in 11 of 27 home games.
Brooklyn allowed Brandon Ingram to score 28 points, Zion Williamson to post 25 and C.J. McCollum to drop 21 points in the same game. In the following game, Pascal Siakam scored 37 points on the Nets. It’s not out of the question for Morant to record 30-plus points.
Dillon Brooks is listed as questionable and was trending in the right direction for the Toronto game, but did not play.
If Brooks does play, I still like Morant’s Over as I expect 30-plus points.
I played Morant Over 28.5 Points at -120 odds on FanDuel. I’d play this to 29.5 or the 30-plus point alternative.
Our player prop model projects 29.1 points in 34 minutes of action.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 28.5 Points (1u)
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