It’s a new week! Let’s pick up where we left off with a nice +7.08u week, going 12-6!
Moses Brown OVER/UNDER 11.5 REBOUNDS VS PISTONS
The Oklahoma City Thunder are primed for a breakout season at one point with all this young talent they are accruing. While it will not be this season, Moses Brown is the latest example of what OKC has hidden on its roster.
It took Brown until 12/31/2020 to earn his first NBA minutes and seven games before he received more than six minutes of playing time. Over the last 10 games, Brown has averaged 28.6 minutes per game and 30 or more minutes in six of the previous 10 contests. He should be on everyone’s radar with six double-doubles in the past 10 games.
NBC Sports Edge’s Player Projection model pegs Brown to record 12.9 rebounds versus the Pistons, the second-most of all players and another double-double.
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Brown totaled 14 rebounds in his last game and has had 12 or more in two of the past three. He recorded 12 or more boards in three of the previous five and seven of the overall last 10 games.
Up until the last two games, Brown played 30 or more minutes in five straight. In those five games, Brown averaged 14.6 rebounds per game. When he plays 30-39 minutes this season, Brown averages 16.3 rebounds per game and 11.8 after the All-Star break.
A majority of Pistons’ games have been blowouts lately. The last five games have all featured wins or losses of 10 or more points. I believe this could be a closer game and with the Thunder only +3 underdogs, there is a chance OKC could win outright too. [[ad:athena]]
Brown has averaged 10.0 rebounds per game in wins this season and 12 or more in the last three victories. Brown has averaged 14.3 per game in his past three wins with three Overs.
He has also averaged 13.0 in the last five contests with three Overs. Brown went Over 11.5 rebounds in six of the past eight games and seven of the last 10.
If the Thunder win or Brown stays out of foul trouble, he will likely be pulling down double-figure boards. Brown had five fouls in his previous game versus the Blazers and pulled down 14 rebounds in 23 minutes.
Against the Suns, Brown grabbed seven boards and only played 24 minutes because of a 37-point blowout loss. I think this game stays competitive for him to play 30-plus minutes and hit double-figures on the board.
The Pistons rank 26th in defensive rebounds per game (32.8), while the Thunder are third at 36.3 per game. The Thunder rank fifth in the last five games in defensive rebounding (36.6) and the Pistons 15th (34.0). Both teams rank in the bottom 11, allowing opponents 34.7 (Pistons) and 37.3 (Thunder) rebounds per game.
I will back Brown Over 11.5 Rebounds and would not play it much higher than that. I would look at the double-double as a parlay piece if his rebound total moves to 12.5.
Pick: Moses Brown Over 11.5 Rebounds (1u)
Jakob Poeltl OVER/UNDER 11.5 POINTS VS CAVALIERS
The Spurs Jakob Poeltl has been on fire the last four games, averaging 14.2 points and 12.0 rebounds per game. Poeltl’s Over/Unders are set at 11.5 Points and 10.5 Rebounds, slightly under what he has been doing.
Poeltl has scored 11 or more points and at least nine rebounds in six straight games - the best stretch of the season.
The Cavs allow the sixth-most rebounds per game (47.2) over the last five contests and the sixth-most over the last there (49.0). In the last 10? More of the same, with Cleveland allowing the ninth-most boards per game (45.8).
Cleveland also allows 48.0 points per game in the paint over the last 10 games, ranking 20th. In the last 10 games, the Cavs have allowed the sixth-most points in the paint (50.0). Poeltl scores 7.1 of his 8.0 points per game in the paint.
Using NBC Sports Edge’s Player Projections, Poeltl’s projected to record 12.3 rebounds. I adjusted the projections to based his projection on his last three and five games, along with his season averages and boom, his average projection became 12.3.
What makes me like this more is he has at least 10 rebounds in four straight, so I can see it.
Poeltl was also projected to score 14.3 points with my adjustments compared to 11.6 without. My projections have Poeltl at 26.5 points and rebounds, while the regular model has 11.6 points and 9.6 rebounds for 21.2 points and rebounds. His point and rebound totals set at 21.5 tonight - a number he has went Over in five straight.
Poeltl’s 8.0 points and 8.1 rebounds per game this season are career-highs. The Spurs big man averages 13.6 points and 10.2 rebounds per game when he plays between 30-39 minutes. After the All-Star break, Poeltl has averaged 11.3 points and 9.7 rebounds in 15 games and 14.0 points and 11.5 rebounds in April.
Poeltl has played 30 or more minutes in six straight games, averaging 14.6 points and 10.8 rebounds during that span. Facing the Cavs, he should have another strong performance.
Cleveland allowed Bam Adebayo to record 18 points and 11 rebounds, Dwight Howard 18 points and 15 rebounds and Rudy Gobert 18 points and 17 rebounds - those are just the last three games.
The Spurs big man should record another double-double and hit his Over on Points and Rebounds. In his last meeting with Cleveland, he scored eight points and grabbed 12 rebounds against Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. Now, Poeltl will face Kevin Love and Dean Wade. A much easier position battle.
I will take a one-unit bet on Poeltl’s point total and a smaller wager on his point and rebound total.
Pick: Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 Points (1u), Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (0.5u)
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