The All-Star Break is finally here and now is a perfect time to go through some of the win totals available at PointsBet Sportsbook before the season. I ran my own projections to see where teams might end up, and spoke to PointsBet Sportsbook analyst Michael Korn to get betting splits for each team’s win total. Three teams are already assured to go under the total, while there’s only one squad who already exceeded preseason expectations.
Teams On Pace to Go Over:
The biggest surprise team of the year has been the Cavaliers, and Cleveland already blew past the win total of 27.5. The Cavs are the only team to cash in on over tickets before the break, and the All Star Weekend hosts are on pace for nearly 50 wins this year.
The other team significantly outperforming expectations in the Eastern Conference is the Toronto Raptors, who are just 3.5 wins away from the preseason line of 35.5.
The Grizzlies need just one more win to ensure a record above .500, which would also take Memphis over the win total of 41.5. The leap taken by this Grizzlies team is profitable for sportsbooks, since 73% of the handle at PointsBet Sportsbook went to Memphis to go under this season.
The two teams above Memphis in the Western Conference, Phoenix and Golden State, are both on pace to exceed their win totals. The Suns need just four more wins after the All Star Break, while the Warriors can hit the over with a record of 6-17 or better the rest of the way.
Anything can happen the rest of the season, but I’d be surprised to see the Timberwolves or Bulls fail to earn six wins over the final 23 games, which would ensure the over hits for each.
No team showed more positive value between the market line and my own preseason projections than San Antonio, and the Spurs are on track to reward my confidence. Even after trading Derrick White at the deadline, there should be enough breathing room to go over 28.5 wins. San Antonio entered the All Star Break on pace for 32 wins and will need just six wins the rest of the season for the over.
Teams On Pace to Go Under:
On the other side, my biggest under bet of the year is already locked up. I projected the Lakers to finish with under 44 wins entering the season, far under the win total line of 52.5. The Lakers played even worse than I expected, with a record on pace for just 38 wins over 82 games. One of my favorite preseason bets was the Lakers to be in the play-in game at +900, and L.A. is currently the 9th seed in the Western Conference with the hardest remaining strength of schedule according to Positive Residual.
The Nets and the Lakers, the two most-backed teams to hit the over at PointsBet Sportsbook, already clinched records that will be multiple wins short of the preseason lines. More than 75% of the money was on the Pacers to go under 42.5 wins, and Indiana is the only other team assured to cash the under at the break.
With 83% of the money on the Knicks to go over 41.5 wins, bettors were high on New York this season. The Knicks have just 25 wins and would need to go 17-6 or better in the final 23 games to reach the over. That looks like my biggest miss, since I thought the Knicks could contend for a top-four seed in the East.
The Portland Trail Blazers entered the season with a total set at 44.5 but the injury to Damian Lillard combined with various other issues has left the Blazers with just 23 wins at the break. There is virtually no chance Portland ends the year on a 20-3 run to save over bettors, especially after the team traded CJ McCollum and other key pieces at the trade deadline.
The Pistons, Kings, Rockets and Pelicans are all still technically alive in the chase to go over their respective win totals, but all four below-.500 teams would need to play significantly above their performance level from before the break. The Pistons and Rockets could be less focused on racking up wins and more concerned with their lottery odds, while the Kings and Pelicans would need to nearly double their winning percentages in the final stretch of the season.
The Hawks and the Clippers are each on pace for 40 wins and will likely finish under their respective preseason win totals of 46.5 and 45.5.
Toss-Ups:
That leaves 11 teams that are toss-ups in terms of whether or not they will exceed their win totals, but some are more likely than others. The Heat still need 11 wins to go over 48.5 but I project Miami to finish with 53 wins and the top seed in the Eastern Conference so the over should be well within reach.
The Hornets and Celtics are on pace to finish right around their preseason projections and recent performance suggests these teams could be better after the break. The Nuggets and Mavericks are also on pace to finish right around their win total lines, but Denver might have an advantage with the easiest remaining strength of schedule according to Positive Residual’s schedule dashboard.
With some of these teams that are toss-ups, injuries, trades and tanking could become factors. Rebuilding squads like the Magic and Thunder have little incentive to chase wins. The Wizards could fit into the tanking picture too after the injury to Bradley Beal, despite playing at a pace that would exceed preseason expectations by more than three wins. In contrast, contenders like the Bucks and the Jazz could come out running after the break with their stars fully healthy.
Another team to watch is the 76ers, the most popular under bet at PointsBet Sportsbook this season. Philly needs to go 16-8 or better to exceed 50.5 wins but should get a boost by the trade deadline acquisition of James Harden.
