With Week 9 underway in the NFL, one of the most polarizing questions around the league is can the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor win the MVP award?
The last time a running back won MVP was in 2012 when Adrian Peterson took home the hardware. Before him, LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006, Shaun Alexander in 2005, and Marshall Faulk in 2000. Other than those four, we’ve seen 22 quarterbacks win the award since 2000, including 12 straight! If you look at this year’s odds, 14 of the top 15 players are quarterbacks, so you can guess who’s the outlier.
Can a running back take down the field and win MVP? Here’s my take on it! Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule! All MVP odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
NFL MVP Odds:
Patrick Mahomes (+125), Josh Allen (+350), Drake Maye (+500), Matthew Stafford (+1200), Baker Mayfield (+1400), Daniel Jones (+1600), Jonathan Taylor (+1800), Jordan Love (+1800), Jared Goff (+2000), Jalen Hurts (+2500)
One of my favorite memories as a kid watching the NFL was LaDanian Tomlinson’s MVP season. It was capped off by being lifted up and swarmed by teammates after breaking the NFL single season rushing touchdown record with 28 and total touchdowns at 31 against the Broncos. As a Jonathan Taylor fantasy manager and fan of football — wouldn’t it be sweet to see JT break LT’s record? Because that’s likely what Taylor needs to do to win MVP.
When you think of dominant starts for running backs across football, surely Saquon Barkley‘s start to last year comes to mind, a few Adrian Peterson seasons, including the MVP year, maybe you even go all the way back to Jamal Lewis or a hit some bar trivia questions on Arian Foster, but we cannot deny that Taylor’s start surpasses them all.
Adrian Peterson was the last running back to win MVP in 2016 when he posted 2,097 rushing yards through 16 games, 12 rushing touchdowns on 348 attempts, and 40 receptions for 217 yards and a score. Taylor is on pace for 1,806 rushing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 2,244 total yards from scrimmage, which I think is MVP worthy if he reaches that status and doesn’t hit 2,000 rushing yards.
Through eight games, Taylor has 850 rushing yards on 143 carries (5.9 ypc), 12 touchdowns, plus 25 receptions on 27 targets for 206 yards (8.2 ypc), and two touchdowns. That’s 1,056 total yards and 14 touchdowns on 168 touches (6.2 yards per touch). Taylor has scored three touchdowns in three of his past four games, has at least 86 total yards in every outing, 100-plus rushing yards in four of eight contests with three touchdowns in four games as well.
Let’s not forget that in 2021, the 2020 seocnd-round pick out of Wisconsin went bananas too. Taylor led the NFL in rushing yards by almost 600 yards (1,811) ranking ahead of Nick Chubb who finished second at 1,259. Taylor’s 18 rushing touchdowns, 20 total scores, 332 carries, and first downs gained (107, next as 65) cleared the field that year and his numbers then don’t even compared to his numbers now.
In 2021 through eight games, Taylor recorded 123 carries, 649 rushing yards, 5.2 yards per carry, six rushing touchdowns, 21 receptions, 265 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown (3-5 record). On 20 more carries this year and four more receptions than 2021, but through the same amount of games (8), Taylor has doubled that touchdown output (7 to 14), has 201 more rushing yards, 142 more total yards, and the best record in the NFL (7-1).
In Peterson’s MVP season, the former Viking had 775 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 151 attempts through the first eight games. Taylor has those numbers beat by a mile.
Last year, Barkley finished with 2,005 rushing yards, 2,283 total yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns in 16 games (15-1 record), which was impressive and one of the best seasons ever for a running back. The only negative, if there was any, was Barkley lacked the expected touchdowns with the amount of yards (2,283) and touches (378) he produced. That was due to Jalen Hurts and the tush push stealing potential goal line attempts. Barkley finished third in MVP voting behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, which leaves the question, what does a running back have to do to win MVP? It’s simple, more touchdowns.
Even if the Colts don’t have the best record in the NFL come year end, but are a top three team in the AFC, there is a world where Taylor can win MVP. Indianapolis went 8-9 last season missing the playoffs and can match their win total with a win at Pittsburgh Sunday.
His main competitors for the award, of course, are quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes (+125), Josh Allen (+350), Drake Maye (+500), Matthew Stafford (+1200), and Baker Mayfield (+1400) and are the top five MVP candidates right now. Right outside of that top tier is where Taylor falls (+1800) in line, along with his teammate Daniel Jones (+1600), Jordan Love (+1800), Jared Goff (+2000), and Jalen Hurts (+2500).
The likelihood of all the names mentioned above actually lasting until the final two weeks as favorites only extends to Mahomes, Allen, and Taylor/Jones in my opinion. There is a slim chance Lamar Jackson (+5000) enters the conversation if the Ravens win out or close to it, but the rest of those quarterbacks aren’t names I’d put my money on to win MVP (Stafford, Maye, Love, Hurts, Mayfield, Goff).
Indianapolis plays at Pittsburgh and an overseas trip versus Atlanta over the next two weeks before the bye. The Steelers are reeling the wrong way and the Falcons started Kirk Cousins in their last outing, so the Colts could and should very well win those games.
After the bye week, it’s the moneymaker for Taylor’s MVP campaign. The Colts go to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs and if Taylor pops off and the Colts win, we could see him become the favorite or at the very least a top three favorite in terms of odds along with Mahomes, Allen, and whoever else.
After playing the Chiefs, the final seven games features the Jaguars and Texans twice, a trip to Seattle for the Seahawks, and a home game against the 49ers. That is a schedule that gives the Colts a path to being the No. 1 in the AFC and Taylor winning MVP if you ask me.
I think Taylor is worth at least a 0.5 unit to win MVP. While it’s still a long shot because regression could certainly set in any week for Taylor or a bad loss drop his odds, but we could also see him set records this year and the odds drop each week. I think he can be a top three finisher in MVP, so I will take a swing.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor to win MVP (0.5 unit)
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