Editor’s Note: Looking to place a player prop bet on this week’s NFL game? New users receive a risk-free bet up to $1,000: Sign up here and bet now with code PEACOCK.
Bengals (-3.5) at Browns: O/U 45.5
The Cleveland Browns have lost four straight versus the Falcons, Chargers, Patriots and Ravens.
Those four teams combine for a 17-14 record, but all are in thick of their divisional playoff races.
The Bengals are 4-3 with the four wins coming in the past five games, so they are streaking and will be a public play tonight.
However, there are multiple reasons to fade Cincy on Monday Night Football. Star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is out for this game and this will be his first game missed since being drafted and first that Burrow hasn’t had him in the lineup since 2021.
How that affects Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense could be evident early on and in my opinion, not exactly worth backing. Add in the the lack of explosion shown from Joe Mixon behind one of the lower rated offensive lines in football versus Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett spells serious rouble.
Then there is the history between these two teams. While you might say Cleveland has had different quarterbacks or players in those matchups, I would counter with is Jacoby Brissett that much of a drop-off from Baker Mayfield?
Since 2018, the Browns have won seven out of eight meetings versus the Bengals and four-straight overall, including four-straight at home, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Click here to learn more!
Cleveland has a bye week on deck, so this win would put them in a position to “feel” like they can make a run at the AFC North.
With games versus the Dolphins, Bills and Buccaneers following the bye week, the Browns desperately need a win and I think they get it versus a division opponent here. For those next three games, fade city.
Here are some supporting trends for the Home Underdog and Under on Monday Night Football, which I am backing.
On Monday Night Football and since the start of 2020, the home underdog is 13-6 ATS (68.4%) and 8-11 on the ML (+7.05 units).
The home underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run on MNF. The Under has hit in seven straight featuring a home dog.
Home underdogs are 33-15 to the Under this season, which is 68.7% and up +15 units.
Home underdogs are also 20-27-1 on the ML, which is only 42.5%, but up +8.79 units.
Unders in divisional games this year are 27-12 (69%) and when the Bengals and Browns have played on Primetime, which has only happened seven times since 1983, the Under is 5-2 (71.4%) and 2-1 since 2014.
I played the Browns +3.5 at -120 odds for 1 unit and sprinkled the ML at +150 for a 0.5 unit and the Under 45.5 (-112) at 0.5 unit.
Pick: Browns +3.5 (1u), Browns ML (0.5u), Under 45.5 (0.5u)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
