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Mike Evans O/U 1,025.5 Receiving Yards
Per PlayerProfiler, you can take a look at Mike Evans career numbers with Tampa Bay. He has a record of eight-straight 1,000 yard seasons to start his career and went Over 1,025 yards six out of eight seasons for the Bucs (75%).
Over the last two years with the G.O.A.T, aka Tom Brady, Evans has 27 combined touchdowns and 144 receptions for 2,041 yards. This season could be his best one yet. Why? Well there are about three to four significant reasons.
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This year, Chris Godwin could miss a few weeks due to an ACL injury. Last year, Godwin was 31st in target share, with a 5% higher percentage than Evans and ranked 17th in targets (128), while Evans was 25th (113).
This year, Antonio Brown will not be playing the NFL. He will be playing the role of an up-and-coming rapper. I will take the Under on his records sold, but I did enjoy watching him perform via social media at Rolling Loud.
This year, Rob Gronkowski retired and seems happily committed to his future business arrangements, while preserving his body from taking a beating. Reportedly, he has no interest in coming back, even if Brady calls.
Lastly, this year, Leonard Fournette rumors are swirling about his weight surfacing around 250-260 pounds. We will find out at camp what he really looks like, but if he is slower this season, Evans will take a larger role in an offense with Russell Gage as the No. 2 WR.
Lastly, Tampa signed Julio Jones and pushed the Over on Evans’ yardage prop from -115 to +105. Not a big deal. Julio barely impacted the Titans last season and while Brady can revitalize any receiver, we will not be seeing a Randy Moss type season from Jones.
This is the Mike Evans year. The 6-foot-5 and 230 pound WR ranked top 15 in air yards (1,454), routes run (588), deep targets (23), touchdowns (14), red zone targets (19) and unrealized air yards (675). He ranked fourth in the NFL with a +30.6 premium target, which showed his value for Tampa Bay.
Lastly, Tampa Bay will face eight opponents that are ranked 16th or worse in Warren Sharp’s secondary rankings in 2021, so Brady and Evans could feast.
I do not expect that value to dwindle, but increase this season. Back Evans Over 1,025.5 receiving yards for +105 odds. I would play this to 1,050 before passing.
Pick: Mike Evans Over 1,025.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
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