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Las Vegas Raiders Team Total O/U 8.5 Wins
Everyone is pretty excited about the 2022 Las Vegas Raiders, but I am not one of those people.
From Week 9 to the end of the regular season, the Raiders were one of the worst teams in the NFL yet they made the playoffs. What? How? From Week 9 on, the Raiders were outscored by 79 points.
They lost to the Giants, Chiefs, Bengals, Commanders, and Chiefs again with a three-point OT win vs the Cowboys during a 6-game stretch
Before winning the last four games by two points vs Browns, four points vs Broncos, three points vs Colts, and three in OT vs the Chargers -- they were one of the luckiest teams and won a ton of close games
We know when teams win a ton of close games, they often cannot repeat that luck factor.
Looking over the Raiders 2022 schedule, the first five games are ridiculous, but not as bad as the final six games of the year. To open the season, the Raiders play the Chargers, Titans and Chiefs on the road, plus the Cardinals and Broncos at home. I see 1-4 with 3-2 as the very best case scenario,
Over the next six games, the Raiders will need to stack wins. Las Vegas will play the Texans, Saints, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks and Broncos during that stretch before wrapping up the season with a gauntlet.
To end the year, the final six games are against the Chargers, the Rams, the Patriots, the Steelers, the 49ers and the Chiefs. Insert the Northwestern kid, “Oh my god” meme.
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Even games against the Patriots and Steelers will be difficult down the stretch as this will be December football, which means hard-nosed defense with stellar coaches on the opposing sideline.
I cannot look at this team from last year and see a winning record. The Raiders were undefeated in overtime games (4-0, most OT wins in a regular-season of NFL history), 5-1 in games decided by a field goal or less and 7-2 in one-score games, while trailing in 15 out of 17 total regular-season games. It’s a miracle that team won 10 games.
Of course, the Raiders added WR Davante Adams and EDGE rusher Chandler Jones, two of the best at their positions, but is that enough to repeat 10 wins against this ridiculous schedule? I don’t think so.
For +100 odds, let’s go 3 units, my largest unit size, and take the Raiders Under 8.5 Wins. The Raiders are -200 to Not Make The Playoffs.
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders Under 8.5 Wins (3u)
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