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Joe Mixon O/U 18.5 Receiving Yards vs. Steelers
Did you know that Joe Mixon has recorded four or fewer receiving yards in his last five meetings versus the Steelers?
So, why is his player prop line at 18.5 yards? I couldn’t tell you since he is 6-2 to the Under in his career versus Pittsburgh and finished 2021 at 10-6 to the Under 18.5 receiving yards last season and 10-4 in the first 14 games.
NBC’s Player Prop model projects Mixon to record at 26.3 yards on three receptions and four targets, but I doubt that with Myles Jack and Devin Bush as the two linebackers that will be guarding Mixon 1 v 1.
This graph is from statmuse and shows Mixon’s rushing and receiving numbers in eight games versus the Steelers.
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The Steelers linebacking unit is stacked with Bush, Jack, Alex Highsmith and reigning Defensive MVP, T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh will have the athletes to run with Mixon out the backfield.
Mixon has totaled 13 or more rushing attempts in five-straight versus Pittsburgh with 18, 18 and 28 carries in the past three meetings.
I expect Mixon to be more effective on the ground than through the air, plus Samaje Perine or Chris Evans could get a few receptions.
Both backup running backs received at least a 9.8% snap share in both games versus Pittsburgh last season and combined for a 20-22% snap share in each game behind Mixon.
Last year when Mixon recorded a 75% snap share or less, the Bengals top running back recorded two or fewer catches in eight of those 11 games. In those same 11 contests, Mixon also went Under 18.5 receiving yards in eight games.
With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst on the field with Mixon, I expect Joe Burrow to go elsewhere when passing.
I played this at DraftKings for -115 odds and would play it down to 14.5 yards for 1 unit.
Pick: Joe Mixon Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
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