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Alvin Kamara O/U 59.5 Rushing Yards vs. Falcons
Alvin Kamara is coming off performances of 30, 26, 42, 13 and 26 rushing yards over the past five games and we’re going Over here.
Hear me out first, the five defense that Kamara just faced was the Ravens, Steelers, Rams, 49ers and Buccaneers -- now he gets the Falcons! This is a smash spot for Kamara, who has had success against the Falcons previously.
Kamara only had nine rush attempts for 39 yards in an offense intreating a few new pieces in Week 1. Prior to that meeting, Kamara had 146, 50, 88, 45 and 61 rushing yards against Atlanta.
The Saints running back will face a defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed per play (5.8 ypp) and coming off a bye week to get healthy and prepare.
Kamara is primed for a bounce back and prior to the Bucs game, the Saints running back posted 76%, 100%, 85% and 95% snap shares in the previous four games. He should see 80-plus percent here.
I played Kamara Over 59.5 Rushing Yards at -120 odds on DraftKings. Id’ play this to 69.5 honestly and I sprinkled 100+ rushing yards for +470 odds on FanDuel compared to +225 on DraftKings!
Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (2u)
Patriots at Raiders (-1.5): O/U 44.5
This is a big game for the Patriots if they plan on playing in the postseason.
New England is sitting at 7-6 with games against the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills after this. I don’t know how the Patriots feel about this game, but I would say this is a must-win and that’s what New England usually does versus Las Vegas.
The Patriots have won six-straight meetings versus the Raiders and covered five times dating back to 2005.
This season, the Raiders won three-straight to bring life to its season, but after being shocked by Baker Mayfield and the Rams on Thursday Night Football, the Raiders season is in doubt.
Since Week 9, New England allows 3.99 yards per play on defense, the best in the league and they’ve only allowed three touchdowns outside of the red-zone all season.
Las Vegas relies on scoring outside the red zone, scoring 45.2% of their touchdowns that way, the highest in the league, so this will be a tough test for the Raiders offense or Patriots defense depending how you look at it.
The Patriots are 4-2-1 ATS and 4-3 on the ML away from home this season. With Mac Jones on the road, the Patriots are 9-4 on the ML and 7-5-1 ATS since the start of last season.
For Derek Carr, the Raiders quarterback is 11-14 on the ML and 10-15 ATS versus non-AFC West opponents at home since 2017 and 5-11 ATS and on the ML in the past 16.
It’s also a battle between Bill Belichick and his former coordinator, Josh McDaniels. In a pivotal game for postseason hopes, I will take the coaching edge.
I will wait on the Rhamondre Stevenson news, because we might get a better line but I will be on the Patriots +1.5 at -115 odds and would play this down to the ML. I’d like to get a +3, but we will likely get a +2 or +2.5 at the best.
Pick: Patriots +1.5 (1u)
Falcons at Saints (-4): O/U 43.5
We will continue to fade the Falcons, who are 1-6 ATS in the past seven games after starting 6-0 ATS this season.
Now, the Falcons dump Marcus Mariota in favor of rookie Desmond Ridder for the final four games. Atlanta has struggled against the Saints since 2018 and I am not sure a switch to a rookie quarterback is the fix.
The Saints are 7-2 on the ML and 6-3 ATS versus the Falcons since the start of 2018. This is a big game as both teams could technically still take the NFC South. The Buccaneers are 6-7, while the Panthers and Falcons are 5-8, with the Saints at 4-9.
New Orleans is a long shot but with a win here and a Bucs loss to the Bengals, plus a Panthers loss to the Steelers, both very possible, New Orleans is live for the division (+3000). However, with the Falcons’ move to Ridder, it signals that Atlanta is likely tanking and evaluating its younger talent in the final month.
Atlanta did have a bye week, so time to work with Ridder, but so did the Saints. New Orleans’ defense allowed 30 total points in the past two games and since Week 8, New Orleans allows 4.66 yards per play, which is third-best during that span.
New Orleans is 2-0 ATS and on the ML as a home favorite this season. I grabbed the Saints -4 (-115) and would play this to -5.
Pick: Saints -4 (1u)
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