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Hunter Henry O/U 30.5 Receiving Yards vs. Falcons
The Patriots travel to Atlanta to meet with the Falcons for a potential letdown spot on Thursday Night Football.
We will get the game cap later, but I believe Mac Jones and New England could have to throw more than we expect in this matchup.
One Pats player that has been consistent and quiet is tight end, Hunter Henry.
Last week Henry played the highest snap share of the season at 83.9% and ran 22 or more routes for the seventh time in 10 games, per PlayerProfiler.
Henry has also recorded at least 23 air yards in every game and totaled 25 or more receiving yards in eight of 10 games (80%).
On average, tight ends have performed better than their average at the second-highest rate versus the Falcons. Only the Packers allow more damage on average to tight ends, per FantasyPros.
On the season, Henry has hit 30 or more receiving yards in six out of nine games (66.7%) but only 1-of-4 in the last four (25%). Henry had 19, 23 and 25 yards in the three Unders.
Here is how tight ends have fared against the Falcons this season.
Week 1: Dallas Goedert -- 4 rec, 42 yards -- Over
Week 1: Zach Ertz -- 2 rec, 34 yards -- Over
Week 2: Rob Gronkowski -- 4 rec, 49 yards -- Over
Week 3: Evan Engram -- 2 rec, 21 yards -- Under
Week 4: Ricky Seals-Jones -- 2 rec, 19 yards -- Under
Week 5: Ryan Griffin -- 1 rec, 4 yards -- Under
Week 6: Bye Week
Week 7: Mike Gesicki -- 8 rec, 85 yards -- Over
Week 8: Ian Thomas -- 1 rec, 10 yards -- Under
Week 9: Adam Trautman -- 4 rec, 47 yards -- Over
Week 10: Dalton Schultz -- 1 rec, 14 yards -- Under
While we saw an even 5-5 split (50%) on the Over 28.5 or 30.5 yards, I like the numbers I see.
The only tight end that did not average 9.0 yards or more per catch was the Jets’ Grffin, who had one catch. Every other tight end had 9.0 or more yards per catch with eight averaging 10-plus.
On three receptions, Henry has a favorable chance at hitting 30 yards versus the Falcons.
Guys like Griffin, Thomas, Engram and Schultz are players you would be crazy to start with confidence on your fantasy teams and even crazy to bet the Overs on any of them most weeks.
As for the others, Goedert, Ertz, Gronk, Seals-Jones, Gesicki and Trautman -- they are all more comparable tight ends to Henry than the previous four mentioned in the above paragraph.
I think we see Henry’s numbers against Atlanta mimic Trautman, Goedert and Gronk type numbers.
I like this spot for the former Charger to eclipse 30-plus yards. Playable to 32.5 as it opened at 28.5 and changed on me as I was publishing.
Pick: Hunter Henry Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
Patriots (-6.5) at Falcons: O/U 47.5
Here is a fun stat for you. The favorite is now 3-14 ATS in the last 17 primetime games, per Joe Osborne.
You betting on the Falcons +6.5?
The favorite is now 3-14 ATS in the last 17 primetime games. Who's taking a shot on Falcons +6.5 on Thursday night?
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) November 16, 2021
Here are some trends to note for you.
The Patriots are 6-4 ATS this season (60%), but that is thanks to four straight covers against the Browns, Panthers, Chargers and Jets. New England was the favorite in three out of four games.
Mac Jones is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU this season on the road. This game will be in Atlanta.
The Falcons are 4-5 ATS and on the ML this season (44.4%) and 5-4 to the Over (55.5%).
Over the last five games, Atlanta has won three outright and dating back to Week 3, the Falcons are 4-3 SU.
At home, the Falcons are 0-3 ATS and on the ML, similar to the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Atlanta lost to Carolina, Washington and Philly at home.
The Falcons played in six straight games decided by seven or fewer points until the 43-3 loss to the Cowboys last week.
The Patriots are getting the majority of the money as expected, but I am willing to wait for line movement to confirm which side is the right play.
As we saw with the Rams and 49ers, which I wrote about, Over 80% of the money was on the Rams -3.5 but the line never moved. That much money warrants a line change, unless the books are confident the 49ers were the right side.
The 0-4 home 49ers’ were indeed the right side winning as +160 dogs.
We sometimes have cheat codes and we don’t even know it or want to use it. I will watch the line on this TNF meeting and the bet handles before making an ATS play, but it’s obvious, dogs continue to bark in the NFL.
I lean Falcons but want the +7 and a Cordarrelle Patterson update before I place my wager.
The Falcons are 4-3 on the ML in its last seven games as an underdog in November. A random stat from our system, as you can see below, but one that gives value especially on a short week versus a rookie quarterback who has not lost a road game yet.
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