The countdown to the 2022 NFL season is intensifying. Most bettors begin their NFL handicapping by wagering on regular season win totals, so over the next few weeks I will share my thoughts on PointsBet’s regular season win totals. We begin with the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills - 11.5 Over (-140) Under (+115)
The Bills enter the 2022 season as the favorite to win it all at +650 and share the highest-projected regular season win Total with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, according to PointsBet. To put it blunt: This should be the Bills season. Buffalo has a fairly tough start to the season with three of its first four games being on the road, but once it hits November, the Bills should start to roll. Josh Allen and Co. were 5-3 away from home last season and will play seven games vs. teams that made the playoffs last year, including two against the Patriots Outside of their own division, the Bills face off against teams from the NFC and AFC North. A 12-win season for the Bills is a decent bet. Shop around for the best odds, but a play at -140 on PointsBet is worth it.
Edge: Bills Over 11.5 (-140)
Miami Dolphins - 8.5 Over (-140) Under (+110)
Dolphins fans are cautiously optimistic as we head into the new season. New head coach Mike McDaniel takes over a team that won nine games last season and made a big splash with the addition of former Chiefs wideout Tyreek Hill. Hill can transform an offense, but questions about Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa remain as he enters his third season. Miami opens up the season with games vs. New England, Baltimore, Buffalo, and Cincinnati. Five of the Dolphins last six games are vs. the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, Packers and Patriots. The tough start and tough close to the season has me thinking the Dolphins will win eight games this year.
Edge: Dolphins Under 8.5 (+110)
New England Patriots - 8.5 Over (-115) Under (-105)
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones took over the Patriots offense last season and led them back to the playoffs, thanks in large part to a seven-game winning streak that turned their season around. However, New England finished losing three of its final four games and were beat by the Bills in the Wild Card round.
This season, the Pats play six games vs. teams that made the playoffs last year. We will see what they are made of in the month of December when they play the Bills, followed by road games vs. the Cardinals and Raiders, before they come home to face the Bengals. The Patriots should take advantage of the earlier part of their schedule, making them at least a nine-win team.
Edge: Patriots Over 8.5 (-115)
New York Jets - 5.5 Over (+130) Under (-160)
The New York Jets have won a total of six games over the last two seasons, including suffering three separate three-game losing streaks under head coach Robert Saleh last season. Saleh is back for this season but a third season is not guaranteed, if he can’t show progress. First-year quarterback Zach Wilson played better later in the season so there is optimism. The Jets also had a very strong draft and improved their offense in the offseason.
New York will likely struggle against teams in the AFC East, but I still expect the Jets to come away with two wins in their division. After that, Zach Wilson and Co. have a pretty favorable schedule. The Jets toughest road opponent during the first half of the season are the Packers and their schedule softens up a bit after their bye in Week 10. Their final four games are vs. the Lions and Jaguars at home and road games vs. the Seahawks and Dolphins. At +130, an Over play on the Jets is worth a few bucks.
Edge: Jets Over 5.5 (+130)