Editor’s Note: Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
The Green Bay Packers are in desperate need of something to turn their season around. Standing at 3-4, Green Bay is staring down the barrel of a season in which it doesn’t make the playoffs, which would mark just the third time that’s happened in the last 13 years.
The Bills, meanwhile, are working on a near-perfect season. They come out of the bye at 5-1 and 2-0 at home, falling just to the Dolphins weeks ago in a surprising turn of events. In the two weeks since, they’ve outscored their opponents 72-17.
This game is on NBC. Tune in. Be a part of the excitement. Play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor App. It is FREE and offers an opportunity to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot. Download the NBC Sports Predictor app to join the party right now. There are other free-to-play games on the app including contests focusing on the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar, and College Football. Download it now and enjoy.
To help you out, here are some statistics and suggested picks to two of the seven questions from this week’s game.
Question #1: How many passing yards and touchdowns will Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers throw for on Sunday night vs. the Buffalo Bills?
Yardage Potential Answers:
<200 yards, 200-219 yards, 220-239 yards, 240-259 yards, 260-279 yards or 280+ yards
Number of Passing Touchdowns:
0, 1, 2, 3, 4+
Let’s just start with this: Green Bay isn’t throwing the ball like it used to. The Packers are down Randall Cobb and exciting youngster Christian Watson, relying on some less-than-stellar pass-catchers. Aaron Rodgers appears far out of sync with all of them, even Robert Tonyan, and that should make for a tricky game on Sunday night.
The best chance the Packers have in this game is running the ball. That’s what they do best, ranking 14th in DVOA on the ground and putting up 4.6 yards per carry. The thing is, though, that Green Bay has chosen to throw 61.47% of the time this year, which ranks 12th-highest.
Even with all the passing, Rodgers has still only maxed out at 251 yards in a single game and has only eclipsed 240 yards three times.
Suggested Answer: It doesn’t seem likely the Packers completely abandon the pass, especially considering that’s technically the weaker side of the Buffalo defense. Still, these options above make sense given the season Rodgers is having. He’s averaging just 220.7 yards over the last three games, and I’m going to go with him to finish inside that 220-239 yard window.
He’s actually managed to pass for exactly two touchdowns in five of the last six games, so that is worth a shot here as well.
Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Click here to learn more!
Question #2: How many passing yards and touchdowns will Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen throw for on Sunday night vs. the Green Bay Packers?
Yardage Potential Answers:
<290 yards, 290-309 yards, 310-329 yards, 300-349 yards, 350-369 yards or 370+ yards
Number of Passing Touchdowns:
0-1, 2, 3, 4+
The Packers have been incredible against opposing quarterbacks, ranking 11th in DVOA against the pass and allowing just two opposing signal-callers to throw for over 220 yards. Those quarterbacks? Tom Brady, naturally, and...Kirk Cousins.
Do I think Josh Allen is better than those guys? I sure do. He’s averaged 330 yards per game and surely will join that illustrious list. The thing is, though, how much better is he? Also, at what point do the Bills just run the option and kill the clock?
Opponents are passing just 49.38% of the time against Green Bay, the second-least of any team in the league, and opponents are going for just 168.9 yards per game.
Suggested Answer: The Bills don’t seem to know how to run the ball, ranking 26th in rush play rate, and it’s also worth noting while no teams throw on the Packers they’ve been among the six worst teams in yards per pass allowed.
There’s a world where Allen goes off here, but given the hype around this game I wouldn’t be surprised to see folks go a but too high. I’m going to stick with a modest projection of 310-219 yards and go with Allen to throw for two touchdowns. Though he’s thrown for fewer than three on just two occasions, the Packers defense is allowing just two touchdowns per game this year.
Editor’s Note: Having discussed two of the questions with you, I will leave the rest of the questions for this week’s SN7 to you. Best of luck in securing a share of the $100,000 guaranteed payout. Enjoy the sweat. Click here to get started with the NBC Sports Predictor app.