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The Chargers (6-6) welcome the Dolphins (8-4) to SoFi Stadium on Sunday night, looking to rebound from a 27-20 loss to the Raiders. Quarterback Justin Herbert (3339-20-7) has made do with the talent around him, as the Chargers have dealt with a number of injuries along the offensive side of the ball. The recent return of Keenan Allen, who has gone for 11-137-2 in his last two games makes life a bit easier for Herbert, and running back Austin Ekeler has 1,153 yards from scrimmage to go with 12 total touchdowns. They’ll need all hands on deck to counter an explosive Dolphins offense that’s looking to rebound from a 33-17 loss of their own last week.
In that loss to the 49ers, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 295-2-2 and was held to a season-low 54.5% completion percentage. He exited the game late with an ankle injury, which could put his status for Week 14 up in the air, but things appear optimistic for him early in the week. The dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill (96-1379-5) and Jaylen Waddle (57-972-6) should give the Chargers’ defense headaches all evening -- as we’ll talk about a bit later -- in a game that should be ripe for scoring.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Sunday night’s matchup between the Chargers and Dolphins is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Justin Herbert has been tasked with playing hero ball as of late. Playing behind a busted offensive line and throwing to a banged-up wide receiver group isn’t exactly a recipe for success, as Herbert has learned all season. In their last two games, the Chargers have found themselves battling to the final whistle, going 1-1 over that span with Herbert attempting 109 passes while throwing for 605-4-0. He’s also taken nine sacks and faced 24 pressures in those two games.
In a game that currently has an over/under of 52 -- the second-highest total of any game on the weekend -- Herbert should once again find himself chucking the ball early and often. The Chargers defense has struggled this season, allowing the third-most points per game (25.8) and seventh-most yards per game (371.7). Tua Tagovailoa and company should have no problem putting points on the board and forcing Herbert into throwing.
Additionally, the Dolphins’ pass defense ranks 23rd in the league in passing DVOA per Football Outsiders and are fresh off allowing 210 passing yards to 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. In defense of the Dolphins’ defense, Purdy managed a paltry 5.4 aDOT and 5.7 YPA on the day, but he still played well enough to lead the 49ers to a 33-17 win.
Herbert is no Brock Purdy. And if backed into a corner, he could make the Dolphins’ defense pay with a few big plays on the evening. Having Austin Ekeler eat up easy receiving yards out of the backfield only adds to his ability to enjoy a solid day. He’s currently averaging 278.3 passing yards per game -- the fifth-most yards per game among qualified passers. I like him to go off for s solid performance under the home lights of SoFi.
Pick: 295-314 yards
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards
In last week’s loss to the 49ers, the Dolphins lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the fourth quarter to an ankle injury. Rookie Skylar Thompson took over for the remainder of the game, however, the early reports on Tagovailoa heading into this week are that he’s good to go for Sunday night.
If you don’t believe me, have a look at this excellent blurb from a site I came across while writing this article.
There you have it, Tagovailoa is expected to start in Week 14 against the Chargers.
This spells not only good news for the Dolphins but also Tyreek Hill, who might spontaneously combust if he’s forced to watch Skylar Thompson start another game. You may or may not remember Thompson’s Week 6 start against the Vikings when he went 7-of-13 passing for 89 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in the 24-16 loss.
Hill has been an absolute game-wrecker in his first season with the Dolphins. With a line of 96-1379-5 through 12 games, Hill is on pace for 1,953 yards this season and has gone for 100+ yards in six games this season. In each game he’s gone for over 100 yards, Hill hasn’t just surpassed that total, he’s kicked the door in. His “worst” 100+ yard game was a 143-yard output against the Bears in Week 9.
As previously mentioned, the Chargers aren’t stopping opposing offenses this season. However, per Football Outsiders, they’re allowing 64.5 receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s and have allowed just two 100+ yard games to receivers this season -- both of those were to Davante Adams (Week 1 & Week 13).
It is worth noting that the Chargers haven’t faced the best group of wide receivers thus far. The likes of Kansas City, Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland and Denver (to name a few), haven’t exactly provided many alpha receiver performances in 2022.
Hill’s receiving yards total tops out at 115+ on the predictor. Picking the top number is always bold, but it feels a little less risky when you’re banking on a big performance from Hill.
Pick: 115+ yards
Last Touchdown Scorer
The Last Touchdown Scorer pick features your typical cast of characters.
Miami: RB Jeff Wilson, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle
Los Angeles: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Josh Palmer
But we’ve got a few other key players who could find paydirt in the waning moments of Sunday night’s contest.
The contest inevitably forces us to side with either “Any Other Dolphins Player” or “Any Other Chargers Player”, but I love the alternate options on Miami’s side of this.
To start, running back Raheem Mostert unexpectedly emerged to lead Miami’s backfield in Week 13 against the 49ers. Mostert totaled seven carries for 30 yards on the day while Wilson managed just one carry for three yards. Mostert had also scored in each of the previous two contests (so did Wilson, but you get my point).
Whether or not Mostert will lead Miami’s backfield in touches this week is anybody’s guess. Nobody expected Wilson to be held to one rush attempt on the day, but a negative game script didn’t do much to help Miami’s rushing attack as a whole.
In addition to Mostert, Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki is also on the table as an alternate option. Gesicki has been used sparingly in Miami’s offense this season, catching just 24 passes for 269 yards and four touchdowns, but Gesicki ranks seventh among tight ends in red zone targets (14) this season, and is third in end zone targets (7), ahead of guys like George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and David Njoku.
Mostert and Gesicki are both logical bets to find the end zone in this one. I like Miami to find the end zone a few times in this one, and am comfortable with taking a shot on either closing out the game with a score.
Pick: Any Other Dolphins Player
