Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
Congrats to the Cowboys on securing a home matchup against a down-bad, Jeff Saturday-led Colts team. Sitting at 8-3 on the season, the Cowboys have hit their stride as of late, winning four of their last five games while going 3-2 ATS. A 40-3 dismantling of the Vikings in Week 11 (while on the road) went a long way in convincing folks that Dak Prescott and company look like legitimate contenders. Trailing the Philadelphia Eagles by two games, the Cowboys need to secure these easy wins if they hope to have a shot at an NFC East title, which they’ll have a good chance of doing if they can go 3-0 against the Colts, Texans and Jaguars over the next three weeks.
While the Cowboys fight to secure a division title, the Colts -- whether Jim Irsay wants to admit it or not -- are fighting to secure a top-five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Led by a turnover-prone quarterback with a pop-gun arm, Indy is far from the competitor they hoped to become when they cut ties with Carson Wentz and replaced him with Matt Ryan. A bad offensive line has failed both Ryan and running back Jonathan Taylor, as the Colts have floundered their way to a 4-7-1 record. With Dallas opening the week as 11-point home favorites, it’s safe to say the books -- like everybody else, expect this to be a clear mismatch.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Sunday night’s matchup between the Colts and Cowboys is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Matt Ryan Passing Yards
I’m old enough to remember when Matt Ryan was good, but that feels like ages ago now. The veteran quarterback ranks second in the league in interceptions (10), has 13 fumbles (four lost), and is dead last in aDOT (6.3) among qualified quarterbacks per PFF.
Attempting to squeeze every last bit of juice from his arm before heading into retirement, the deep ball simply isn’t there for Ryan, who has attempted just 16 deep passes through 10 games. His 1.6 deep balls per game is a noticeable drop from the 3.0 deep passes per game he attempted last season, although to his credit he does rank second in deep ball completion percentage (56.3%).
Despite the solid completion percentage, we’ve seen enough of Ryan to know his best days are well behind him. In last week’s performance against Pittsburgh in a game that was competitive throughout, Ryan decided to live and die by the check-down pass, as 18 of his 34 attempts traveled less than 10 yards through the air.
Ryan and the Colts struggled mightily in Week 12 against the Steelers’ stout defense, and things don’t get any easier for them on Sunday. Dallas’ defense ranks No. 1 overall in pass DVOA (-21.7%) per Football Outsiders as cornerback Trevon Diggs and EDGE Micah Parsons will look to get after a passing offense that’s allowed a league-high 43 sacks.
To date, Ryan is averaging 265.0 passing yards per game but hasn’t thrown for more than 243 yards since Week 6 against the Jaguars when he threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns. Facing one of the best pass defenses in the league on Sunday, my expectations for Ryan and his yardage output are rather low.
Pick: <220 Yards
CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards
It took a few seasons -- and perhaps the departure of Amari Cooper -- but CeeDee Lamb has finally emerged as a true WR1. The 2020 first-round pick has caught 67 passes for 895 yards and five touchdowns and has been utilized all over the field. He’s seen 58.0% of his snaps come from the slot and has improved his efficiency as a receiver -- averaging a career-high 2.48 YPRR, which is tied for sixth-best among qualified receivers.
Per PFF.com, Lamb has tallied 30 explosive receptions (receptions of 15+ yards), which falls just one shy of the 31 explosive receptions he posted in 16 games last season, and his 77.9 yards per game are nearly 10 yards per game more than his 2021 total.
Colts cornerback Stephon Gilmore, despite being in his age-32 season, is still playing at a high level. He’s allowing just 39.1 receiving yards per game and has yet to allow a receiving touchdown while forcing five pass breakups and one interception. It’s easy to look at Gilmore’s production this season and assume that he’ll put the clamps on Lamb this weekend, but Gilmore has played all but five of his defensive snaps out wide.
Lamb’s high slot rate should keep him away from Gilmore a decent amount, keeping his door open for a productive day. As a unit, the Colts’ pass defense ranks 13th in DVOA (2.4%) but is 27th in DVOA against opposing WR1s (17.8%).
There’s no doubting Lamb’s status as Dallas’ lead receiver. He’s benefitted from the Cowboys’ 58% pass rate, and fourth-ranked neutral pace (29.30) and should have plenty of chances to produce as Dallas’ defense stifles a bad Colts offense.
Pick: 95-109 yards
Total Points
The under is a combined 14-8 in games these teams have played. The Colts carry the majority of those totals, with the under going 9-3 in their 12 contests -- likely the product of an offense that’s ranked 30th in points per game (15.9) and 26th in yards per game (318.8). Dallas is averaging 25.4 points per game on the year and has the far more explosive offense, but they may have to carry this game if the over of 43.5 is to hit this week.
Looking specifically at the Colts for a moment, of the last six games they’ve played in, the combined total has gone for 40+ just twice. Indy’s defense should be good enough to slow Dallas down at times, but the Colts could also spend the majority of the day completely locked out of the end zone.
The under feels very much in play this week and should be reflected in our picks on the predictor app.
Pick: 38-41 points
