Playoff season is officially upon us! It took 18 weeks of regular season football and more than 65 starting quarterbacks for us to arrive at this moment, but we’ve made it nonetheless!
Jaguars fans rejoice as they find themselves in postseason play for the first time since 2017. In their first year under Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence (4113-25-8) finally looked like a player fit to lead a franchise for the next decade. While Christian Kirk (84-1108-8), Zay Jones (82-823-5) and Evan Engram (73-766-4) emerged to become one of the more unlikely receiving threats of the 2023 season.
For the Chargers, head coach Brandon Staley and quarterback Justin Herbert (4739-25-10) make their first postseason appearance together after falling just short in each of their first two seasons together. The Chargers finished the season ranked ninth in offensive yards per game and 13th in points per game, thanks in part to the explosive play of Austin Ekeler and a deep receiving corps that had to weather the loss of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at various points in the season.
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Saturday night’s matchup between the Jaguars and Chargers is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Justin Herbert Passing Yards
It’s been a while since these two teams met, but not as long as you might think.
For those who may not remember, the Chargers and Jags met in Week 3 of this season, with the Jaguars coming away 38-10 winners on the road. Justin Herbert threw for 297-1-1, with Josh Palmer (6-99-0) and Jalen Guyton (2-64-0) leading the team in receiving. Keenan Allen was sidelined in that game, and Mike Williams had just one catch for 15 yards and a touchdown on six targets.
By all accounts, Herbert and company should be in for a solid day against the Jags’ defense. While the Chargers won’t get the benefit of a home matchup, they still get a pass defense that’s 30th in passing DVOA (19.7%) and allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (238.5).
The Chargers will have Keenan Allen for this one (and hopefully Mike Williams), and finished the regular season ranked second in neutral pass rate (63%) and 15th in EPA per dropback.
Each of these teams ranks in the top-10 in pace of play, which should lead to a lot of plays. I like Herbert to post another solid line, in a game that should see the Chargers go for a little more than the 10 points they were good for in Week 3.
Pick: Justin Herbert 310-329 passing yards
Austin Ekeler Total Yards
Ekeler finished the regular season with 1,637 yards from scrimmage (96.3/gm), rushing for 204-915-13 while adding another 107-722-5 through the air. As previously mentioned, the Jaguars struggle to stop the pass. However, they ranked 11th in DVOA against the run (-11.8%) and allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game (114.8).
Even with a career year, Ekeler rushed for 100+ yards just twice this season but also averaged 53.8 receiving yards per game. Interestingly, no team has allowed more receiving yards per game (49.2) to opposing running backs than the Jaguars.
In the loss to Jacksonville earlier this year, Ekeler was inexplicably held to five rushing yards on four carries but did finish the day with 48 yards through the air. There’s just no way he has as bad a rushing performance that he did in Week 3. For starters, he’ll see more than four rush attempts.
Ekeler will undoubtedly play a key role in the Chargers’ game plan this weekend, and the Jaguars struggle against receiving backs. Even if the Jags bottle him up on the ground, he should feast a little through the air.
Pick: Austin Ekeler 95-104 total yards
Travis Etienne Total Yards
It’s hilarious to think about how much can change over the course of an NFL season.
In their Week 3 win over the Chargers, the Jaguars’ lead runner was James Robinson (17-100-1), who is now with the Jets and spent the last month of the season as a healthy scratch. Now, second-year Travis Etienne is the lead back in Jacksonville’s offense, finishing the year with 1,125 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, and 35 receptions for 316 yards through the air.
Etienne has started every game for the Jaguars since Week 6 and averaged an impressive 5.2 YPC. He rushed for 100+ yards in five of his 12 games as a starter and the Chargers haven’t done a thing to stop the run all season.
Despite multiple upgrades to their defense last offseason, the Chargers still allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (145.8) on the year and ranked 29th in rushing DVOA (6.7%). Etienne going for 100+ in this game can’t be ruled out, but he’s been lightly used as a receiver throughout most of the season, boasting just a 7.0% target share since Week 6.
I like Etienne to flirt with a high rushing total in this one, but expectations must be tempered through the air -- even though he’s just as capable of a big receiving day on any given week. Still, that’s not how the Jaguars have preferred to use him and the Chargers have done a good job at shutting down receiving backs this season.
Pick: Travis Etienne 95-109 total yards
