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There are some times where you actually want to follow the money, and Sunday is one of them. The San Francisco 49ers inexplicably opened up as underdogs in Cincinnati before an influx of cash quickly pushed oddsmakers to flip the odds and make San Francisco a slight favorite.
They were correct to do that. Allow me to explain why.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) Total: 48.5
I’ll admit, I was not a believer in this 49ers team at first. Jimmy Garoppolo is, after all, a mediocre quarterback, and this defense really stumbled out of the gate. While I was stubborn and refused to jump on the Bengals bandwagon, public opinion early on was that they were a very good football team out of the gate with an elite defense.
Those two narratives have quickly changed. The Niners have turned things around with four wins in their last six games and if not for walking into their personal house of horrors last week in Seattle might be 7-5 and a clear contender in the NFC.
The Bengals’ once-great defense has slipped to 19th in weighted DVOA, getting absolutely torn apart through the air. Most recently, they were torched for 317 yards and three touchdowns by Justin Herbert in a game they still managed to record a season-high four sacks in.
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That should just about squash the narrative that a strong pass rush could disrupt Jimmy G in this one; the secondary has been that bad and should Cincinnati opt to blitz it is likely going to be very vulnerable in the second level based on what we’ve seen.
The 49ers have been superb against the run, and that’s all the Bengals do. They rank 12th in run play percentage, and the Niners are the third-best rushing defense judging by DVOA with a perfectly average secondary. Taking away the strength of the Bengals will work wonders for San Francisco, who should be able to control the pace of this game and kill this weak Cincinnati secondary with methodical drives behind strong offensive playcalling. It helps that Brandon Aiyuk has turned into a legitimate weapon in recent games and Garoppolo has pulled his weight.
The Niners are the better side here, and our EDGE Finder would point out that they’ve won 16 of their last 22 games on the road, good for a 7.52 unit profit on the moneyline. I’ll take them to win here.
Edge: 49ers ML -115
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