The Chicago Bears are allergic to points lately.
Chicago’s offensive line is in shambles, quarterback Nick Foles can’t stay out of his own way and Matt Nagy’s play calling has been abysmal. In their last six games, they’ve scored 11, 20, 23, 10, 23 and 17 – an average of 17.6 points over that stretch.
Five of those six games stayed Under the total and if you keep flipping back through the calendar, it’s amazing how strong Chicago Unders have been. According to Rotoworld’s Edge Finder, the Under is 21-and-9 (70%) in the Bears’ last 30 games.
The betting markets opened the upcoming Minnesota-Chicago matchup with a point total of 46 and it’s already been bet down to 44.5 at some shops. PointsBet Sportsbook is currently dealing Minnesota -2.5 with an Over/Under of 45.[[ad:athena]]
We’ve chronicled Chicago’s offensive struggles, but their incredibly strong defense certainly helps the calculus too. They have a superstar at every level (Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson) and do a tremendous job of limiting big plays down the field. The Bears usually bend but don’t break with this group.
And while Saints running back Alvin Kamara recently carved them up for 163 total yards of offense, he’s really been the exception to the rule this season. Football Outsiders ranks the Bears as the third best unit in the entire league.
It helps that Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has really struggled against the Chicago defense since making the move to Minnesota. Cousins and Co. are 0-and-3 SU and ATS and they’re averaging a measly 12 points per contest.
This is also shaping up to be one of those classic “Bear Weather” games with temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-high 30s by kickoff with winds blowing around 15 miles per hour. Those are not ideal situations for offensive fireworks, although it’s far from the Fourth of July when the Bears play the Vikings.
I will gladly roll the dice and bet on the Bears dangerous defense and sputtering offense to take care of business. This should be your typical black and blue battle with Chicago stacking the box against Dalvin Cook and Minnesota limiting a Bears team that can’t and won’t run the ball. Plus, David Montgomery is still in the league’s concussion protocol.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Play on Vikings-Bears Under 45.
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