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Every week of the NFL regular season, I’ll be sharing my thoughts on all Sunday’s games. I will recommend either a side or a Total for each game. All odds are powered by our partners at PointsBet, with up-to-date live odds listed here.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) Total: 48
A pair of teams that only won four games last season open their campaigns in Atlanta. Over 70% of the handle or money taken on this game is backing the Falcons. Since the 2018 season the Falcons are 6-11 (35%) ATS as home favorites. Good luck with that. With new coaching staff on both sidelines I will take the Under.
Edge: Under 48
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.5) Total: 48
This is one of the more intriguing games of Week 1. The Bills have Super Bowl aspirations this season. The Steelers are +170 to make the playoffs. The Bills are a heavy public favorite in this game. The game opened with the Bills as a 6-point favorite. That number went up to 7, but is back down to 6.5 and wouldn’t be surprised if we saw it back at 6 before kickoff. The public thinks, and for good reason, that the Bills will welcome the Steelers to Buffalo with a raucous home crowd. I’m sure they will. The thing is, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 27-16 (62%) ATS as road Underdogs.
Edge: Steelers +6.5 Official Pick
New York Jets vs. Carolina Panthers (-5) Total: 45
We enter a new era of New York Jets football with first-time head coach Robert Saleh and rookie quarterback Zack Wilson beginning the journey against the Panthers. Carolina has a new quarterback as well, a familiar face to the Jets, Sam Darnold. Last year in his first season in Carolina, head coach Matt Rhule was 9-7 ATS but were 2-6 ATS at home. Now I’m not going to tell you to back the Jets in their first game with a new regime. The Total in this game opened at 43.5 and has steamed up to 44. That number is too high in a game with a pair of teams with brand new quarterbacks.
EDGE: Under 44
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+3) Total: 48
Beware of the short-road favorite in this matchup. Over the past three seasons road favorites of 3 or fewer points are 45-66-1 (40%) ATS. The line on this game initially opened at -2.5 and went up to 3.5, just sitting there all summer. Once September came calling, it moved to Vikings -3. I think it could very well get back to -2.5 though. This feels like a sharp play to the Bengals -- fade the public favorite and back the home underdog. In most situations I would, but in this case I think the Bengals will struggle, being that it’s Joe Burrow’s first game back. The Vikings are 7-2-1 on the Money Line and 6-4 ATS as road favorites in the Kirk Cousins era.
Edge: Vikings -3 Official Pick
San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions (+7.5) Total: 45
The Niners and their division rival Rams are tied for the biggest ATS favorites of Week 1. Over the last three seasons, road favorites of seven points or more are 38-31-3 (55%) ATS. I don’t see the Lions being a match for the Niners.
Edge: 49ers -7.5 Official Pick
Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) Total: 49.5
This is one of the tougher games of the weekend to handicap. Russell Wilson has been a very good quarterback on the road throughout his career. He’s been exceptionally good as a road underdog. When Wilson is a road favorite, he is 18-21-3 ATS (46%). However, in those same games he is 27-15 (64%) on the Money Line. Injuries will be key on the Colts side. If both teams have their key players then I like the Seahawks to win the game in overtime.
Edge: Seahawks -2.5
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tennessee Titans (-3) Total: 52
This is another game that is tough spot. The Titans, having reached the playoffs the last two seasons, is attracting 65% of the tickets at PointsBet. Yet the number has held steady at 3 and looks like it is going to move in the Cardinals direction. In the Kliff Kingsbury-Kyler Murray era the Cardinals are 7-4-1 ATS as road dogs. What’s even more interesting is that in the last three seasons, when the Titans Total is 52 or higher the Over is 6-1.
Edge: Over 52
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (+2.5) Total: 44.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a road favorite with a first-time quarterback and head coach. The public of course is backing the Jaguars. I’m so certain the Texans are going to win this game though. I’m willing to play them in my high stakes survivor league.
Edge: Texans +2.5 Official Pick
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Washington Football Team (+1) Total 44.5
If you are looking to bet a side in this game, you might as well just flip a coin. To me, this game has overtime written all over it. Last season in games with a total of 45 or less, the Chargers and Washington combined for a 10-6-1 record to the Under.
Edge: Under 44.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) Total 54.5
A rematch of last season’s divisional playoff is on tap for Week 1. In the last three seasons in home games in which the Chiefs were 6.5 points or lower favorites, they are 4-3 ATS and 5-2 on the Money Line. The Over has cashed in 5 of those 7 games. All of those games had Totals in the 50’s.
Edge: Over 54.5
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots (-3) Total: 43.5
Mac Jones gets a very tough Dolphins team to welcome him to his first NFL start. I do think Jones and the Patriots will be able to move the ball through the air against Miami. The Total on this game opened at 45.5 but has moved down since. I see Jones will adding explosive plays to the Pats offense in his debut.
Edge: Patriots Team Total Over 23.5
Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints (+4) Total: 49.5
The Last Dance starring Aaron Rodgers begins filming Sunday afternoon in Jacksonville vs. the Saints. PointsBet is reporting 94% of the handle on the spread is backing the Packers. I think they are in for a rude awakening. Jameis Winston is the perfect fit at quarterback for the Saints. I’m fading the public and backing the Saints.
Edge: Saints +4 Official Pick
Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants (+3) Total: 41.5
This is another tough game to handicap. The Giants are not a good football team in my opinion, but I struggle backing the Broncos as a big public favorite on the road. In most cases I would just play the under. Teddy Bridgewater is the difference maker here. Teddy Two-Gloves is 4-1 ATS in his career as a road favorite.
Edge: Broncos -3.
Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) Total: 46.5
The Rams are attracting Over 80% of the spread handle in the most bet on game of the week. So there is no chance that I will place a bet on the spread. Novice bettors chase favorites on Sunday and Monday Night Football so we won’t be doing that. In the Sean McVay era when the Rams have been favorite by 7.5 or more points the Under has cashed 56% of the time.
Edge: Under 46.5
Official Picks
Saints +4
Texans +2.5
49ers -7.5
Vikings -3
Steelers +6.5
