In the past few weeks, I have researched and predicted who will take home the passing yards and receiving yards titles (and don’t forget the MVP Odds and Predictions column!). Now it’s time for the rushing yards leader research and predictions. The insight from the research really narrowed the list of potential backs who have a chance to win the rushing title this season. Let’s find out who they are and what to look for if you want to take a longshot bet. If you want to go straight to my favorite bets, go to page 2.
Research for Rushing Yards Leader Odds
- 10 of the last 11 rushing yards leaders had at least 1,474 rushing yards.
- 10 of the last 11 rushing yards leaders have played all 16 games.
- 10 of the last 11 rushing yards leaders had at least 314 carries.
- 10 of the last 11 rushing yards leaders had at least 19.6 carries per game.
- 10 of the last 11 rushing yards leaders had at least 4.7 yards per carry.
- Eight of the last nine leaders had at least 4.4 yards per carry in the previous season (excluding Rookie winners Kareem Hunt and Ezekiel Elliott).
- Seven of the last nine leaders had at least 80 rushing yards per game in the previous season (excluding Rookie winners Kareem Hunt and Ezekiel Elliott).
Editor’s Note: Be sure to checkout DRAFT’s $1,000,000 Best Ball Championship. Best Ball is season long but with no management. Just set it and forget it! Once you’re done drafting, that’s it – no or waivers– you don’t even have to set your lineup. Your best players get automatically selected and you’ll get the best score, every week. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money best ball draft with your first deposit! Here’s the link
Rushing Leader Breakdown
| Rushing Leader | G | Car | Yds | YPC | CarPG | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Since ’07 | 15.9 | 334 | 1,678 | 5.0 | 21.0 | 105.5 |
| Minimum Since ’07 | 15 | 272 | 1,327 | 4.5 | 17.0 | 82.9 |
Whoever leads the NFL in rushing will almost definitely play 15 or 16 games, but that information isn’t valuable with injury prediction a very rough science -- at least to my knowledge -- for now.
What is valuable is the 5.0 yards per carry and 21.0 carries per game averages. This shouldn’t come as a shock, but it requires BOTH efficiency and volume -- but mainly volume -- to win the rushing title. Just look at the minimums from above, and if you remove Kareem Hunt’s league-leading season when a lot of the favorites were injured, the carries per game minimum would climb all the way to 19.6!
A linear trendline does not fit the data well at all. Instead, I have displayed a better fitting polynomial trendline, and it clearly depicts a downward trend. This trendline predicts the 2018 rushing yards leader to finish with about 1,450 rushing yards, which is a decent -- perhaps overly optimistic -- prediction.
In the year prior to leading the NFL in rushing, the running backs’ yards per carry have been rock solid. Eight of the nine leaders averaged at least 4.4 yards per carry in the previous season, and the only exception was when LeSean McCoy was plagued by injuries.
There are 10 running backs who averaged at least 4.4 yards per carry (min. 75 carries) last year and aren’t suspended this year. They are Alvin Kamara (6.07), Dion Lewis (4.98), Kareem Hunt (4.88), Kenyan Drake (4.84), Alfred Morris (4.76), Todd Gurley (4.68), Alex Collins (4.59), LeGarrette Blount (4.43), Matt Breida (4.43) and Devonta Freeman (4.41).
But just like in fantasy football, most of our focus when evaluating prop bets needs to be on volume and not efficiency. As shown on the graph, the rushing yards leader averaged more than 15 carries per game in their previous season eight of the last nine times.
The 13 running backs who averaged at least 15 carries per game last season were Ezekiel Elliott (24.2), Le’Veon Bell (21.4), Leonard Fournette (20.6), Todd Gurley (18.6), Dalvin Cook (18.5), LeSean McCoy (17.9), Melvin Gordon (17.8), Jordan Howard (17.3), Kareem Hunt (17.0), Frank Gore (16.3), Adrian Peterson (15.6), C.J. Anderson (15.3) and Carlos Hyde (15.0). It’s safe to say that some of the running backs -- Frank Gore, C.J. Anderson and Carlos Hyde -- will not see the same volume as they did last year. It’s also worth throwing in David Johnson’s 2016 season when he averaged 18.3 carries per game.
Seven of the last nine rushing yards leaders averaged between 70 and 96 yards per game in their previous seasons. The two exceptions were an injured Arian Foster (42.8 yards per game) and the legendary LaDainian Tomlinson (113.4 yards per game) in the prime of his career.
There were only eight running backs who averaged at least 70 yards per game last season and aren’t suspended this season: Ezekiel Elliott (98.3), Dalvin Cook (88.5 but in four games), Todd Gurley (87.0), Le’Veon Bell (86.1), Kareem Hunt (82.9), Leonard Fournette (80.0), LeSean McCoy (71.1) and Jordan Howard (70.1). This list is almost identical to the current odds to lead the NFL in rushing list.
Editor’s Note: Get a sneak peek at the Rotoworld’s NFL Draft Guide with a look at some of our top features such as positional rankings, sleepers and busts, dynasty rankings, mock drafts, rookie rankings and more! Click here now!
Current Rushing Yards Leader Odds:
| Player | Odds | Prob | Age | Yds | YPG | CarPG | YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | +285 | 26% | 23 | 983 | 98.3 | 24.2 | 4.1 |
| Le’Veon Bell | +550 | 15% | 26 | 1,291 | 86.1 | 21.4 | 4 |
| Todd Gurley | +600 | 14% | 24 | 1,305 | 87 | 18.6 | 4.7 |
| Leonard Fournette | +850 | 11% | 23 | 1,040 | 80 | 20.6 | 3.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | +900 | 10% | 23 | 354 | 88.5 | 18.5 | 4.8 |
| Kareem Hunt | +950 | 10% | 23 | 1,327 | 82.9 | 17.0 | 4.9 |
| Saquon Barkley | +1000 | 9% | 21 | - | - | - | - |
| David Johnson | +1200 | 8% | 27 | 1,239 | 77.4 | 18.3 | 4.2 |
| Melvin Gordon | +1800 | 5% | 25 | 1,105 | 69.1 | 17.8 | 3.9 |
| Jordan Howard | +2500 | 4% | 24 | 1,122 | 70.1 | 17.3 | 4.1 |
| Devonta Freeman | +2800 | 3% | 26 | 865 | 61.8 | 14.0 | 4.4 |
| Field | +3300 | 3% | - | - | - | - | - |
| Alex Collins | +4000 | 2% | 24 | 973 | 64.9 | 14.1 | 4.6 |
| Jay Ajayi | +4000 | 2% | 25 | 873 | 62.4 | 14.9 | 4.2 |
| Derrick Henry | +4000 | 2% | 24 | 744 | 46.5 | 11.0 | 4.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | +4500 | 2% | 23 | 728 | 45.5 | 7.5 | 6.1 |
| Joe Mixon | +5000 | 2% | 22 | 626 | 44.7 | 12.7 | 3.5 |
| Rashaad Penny | +5000 | 2% | 22 | - | - | - | - |
| Ronald Jones | +5500 | 2% | 21 | - | - | - | - |
| LeSean McCoy | +6000 | 2% | 30 | 1,138 | 71.1 | 17.9 | 4 |
| Jerick McKinnon | +6600 | 1% | 26 | 570 | 35.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 |
| Marshawn Lynch | +7000 | 1% | 32 | 891 | 59.4 | 13.8 | 4.3 |
| Kenyan Drake | +8000 | 1% | 24 | 644 | 40.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 |
| Lamar Miller | +10000 | 1% | 27 | 888 | 55.5 | 14.9 | 3.7 |
The last four columns are stats from the rusher’s last healthy season, and for most, it was last year. The age listed is for the upcoming season.
As mentioned earlier, seven of the last nine leaders had at least 80 rushing yards per game in their previous season (excluding rookie winners Kareem Hunt and Ezekiel Elliott). Those who accomplished that milestone last year are correctly listed with the best odds. However, there is still some juice to squeeze at the very top of the list. Ezekiel Elliott (98 yards per game) is in his own tier after averaging 10 more YPG than the second place back, but his odds don’t really reflect that.
This graph is almost identical to the previous one, because carries are basically equal to total rushing yards!
Most of the value is still in the elite group, especially with Ezekiel Elliott who averaged nearly 25 carries per game last year. LeSean McCoy (17.9 carries per game) and Lamar Miller (14.9) are the non-favorites that stick out on the chart. But remember, it has taken 19.6 carries per game on average to win the rushing title over the last 11 seasons, so Miller would really need an uptick in volume to have a chance.
This graph is evidence that Vegas -- and hopefully you after reading -- values last year’s volume over efficiency. The trendline in this chart is nearly flat, unlike the carries per game and yards per game charts shown above.
Alvin Kamara’s 6.1 YPC puts him in his own tier, but he is still getting +4500 odds to lead the league in rushing for two reasons. Most importantly, Kamara does not have the projected rushing volume to lead in rushing yards, but we should also expect some regression, assuming Kamara isn’t the greatest running back in NFL history by a wide margin.
Kenyan Drake is the second dot that stands out. If only given Drake’s +8000 odds, the model would predict last year’s YPC to be 4.2, but Drake finished with a superior 4.8 YPC. As JJ Zachariason notes in the Late Round Podcast, only Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt outperformed their teammates’ YPC more than Drake did last season. Drake also finished first in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating, so there is some evidence that Drake is good. (Side note: Has everyone forgotten that Drake went to Alabama? Is this the first time in history that an Alabama running back was underrated as a pro?) But more importantly, there is a sample -- albeit short-lived -- of heavy volume. In the last five weeks, Drake received 18.2 carries per game with Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams out of the way. This year, Drake will have to fight off 35-year old Frank Gore to keep his bell cow status. And while this is unlikely -- especially since Drake has never exceeded 133 carries in a season-- there is a chance it happens.
Top 3 Favorite Value Bets:
For me to consider a player a legitimate rushing yards leader candidate, the running back had to meet the following criteria:
- Had at least 4.4 yards per carry in a season within a couple years.
- Had at least 70 yards per game in their last healthy season.
- Has a path to getting 280 rushing attempts with the upside for more.
To be abundantly clear, this is not ranking the most likely winners. Instead, these are three players with a higher probability of winning than what the Vegas odds are implying.
1) Ezekiel Elliott at +285 or 26% implied probability - One year removed from leading the NFL in rushing yards, Ezekiel Elliott opens up as the rightful favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards. Last season, Elliott averaged an insane 26.1 carries in his final eight games. Without Dez Bryant and Jason Witten this season, the weaponless Cowboys -- excluding Dak, Zeke and Rico Gathers -- will heavily lean on Zeke once again.
Zeke was noticeably bigger last year, and his Game Speed showed it. I can’t believe I am about to write this, but Ezekiel Elliott’s FUPA held him back last year from an efficiency perspective. Defined by its creator Josh Hermsmeyer, “FUPA takes each play in which a player carries the ball and compares the max speed the player achieved on that play with the league average for the distance he traveled. Higher numbers are better.” In 2016, Elliott’s FUPA was an elite 39.5 but dropped to 13.2 last year. This was a primary reason why Zeke averaged a full yard less per carry from his rookie to sophomore season.
Without having to worry about litigation and suspension, I am betting that Zeke is in better playing shape going into 2018 and is therefore a candidate to improve on his 4.1 yards per carry from last year. However, we should never project Zeke to match his rookie season’s efficiency because his offensive line is not nearly as good as it was. But this is looking like a rare rushing yards leader season where Zeke could win without topping 4.4 yards per carry thanks to an insane workload. Even with the probability of an injury and with less projected efficiency than the typical yardage leader, we should scoop up Zeke at +255 wherever you can. There are only a couple backs that are anywhere close to Elliott’s projected carries.
A distant 2nd) Jordan Howard at +2500 or 4% implied probability - I am not expecting the same turnaround as the 2017 Rams, but the upgrade from HC John Fox to HC Matt Nagy for the Bears is definitely something to be excited about. Fox -- who began coaching in the NFL during the Ronald Reagan administration -- didn’t shape his offense to match his players’ strengths, ran the 2nd fewest offensive plays and headed one of the most predictable offenses as he let forward-thinking coaches pass him by.
The predictable nature of the Bears offense gave the team almost no chance. When the Bears were under center in one score games, they ran the ball 78% of the time (third most in the NFL). When they were in shotgun in one score games, they ran the ball 22% of the time (third lowest in the NFL). That seems pretty easy to defend.
Despite having a quarterback capable of running highly effective RPOs, Fox decided to play it old school and go under center 55% of the time in one score games while the NFL average was 45%. Meanwhile, Howard has averaged 6.5 yards per carry while in shotgun during his career, compared to 4.0 yards per carry while under center!!! This is a textbook example of how not to design an offense to play towards its players’ strengths.
Don’t worry about that when Nagy is calling plays in 2018. Unlike John Fox, Nagy knows the Bears need to play in shotgun a lot and that’s what Nagy likes to play in anyways. Nagy’s Chiefs were in shotgun 74% of the time last year in one score games (third most in the NFL). As I noted on Twitter, the Bears have incorporated a lot more shotgun this preseason. Because of this, I expect Howard to crush last year’s 4.1 yards per carry.
With the improved outlook for the offense, I expect Howard to have his most efficient year yet. Howard was already fifth in carries last year -- he met the carries per game and yards per game minimums listed above -- and the projected increase in efficiency makes him my second favorite bet to lead the NFL in rushing yards.
A distant 3rd) Todd Gurley at +600 or 15% implied probability - I really hate to write up Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley since they are both favorites, but they are both values at their current odds. If Gurley played all 16 games last year instead of 15, the self-proclaimed cat-lover would have won the rushing title -- Gurley finished 22 yards behind Kareem Hunt despite playing one fewer game. Nothing has really changed going into this season for Gurley to make me doubt he will be battling with Ezekiel Elliott for the yardage title late into the season.
The Rams, who were 11-5 a season ago, are still going to be good, setting up positive game script for Gurley. And Sean McVay, arguably the best head coach in the NFL not named Belichick, is still drawing up plays and scheming against defenses to perfection, which will keep Gurley’s efficiency numbers high. This really isn’t complicated here. As long as Gurley stays healthy, he will be in the hunt to win the rushing title.
Honorable mentions: Le’Veon Bell (+550), Dalvin Cook (+900), Kenyan Drake (+8000)
