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Darrell Henderson O/U 57.5 Rushing Yards vs. Seahawks
Last week versus Arizona, Darrell Henderson received the highest snap count of the season with 78.2%. He was out in Week 3, so his return was impactful despite the loss.
Henderson finished with 14 carries for 89 rushing yards and five receptions on six targets for 27 receiving yards (116 total yards). Entering a short week, despite his abrupt departure in Week 3, Henderson has a favorable spot to do damage.
The Seahawks have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL (608) on the second-most attempts (133). At 4.6 ypc surrendered, only seven teams allow more.
So far this season, the opposition has torn them apart. First, Jonathan Taylor finished with 56 rushing yards on 17 carries and led the Colts with six receptions for 60 yards on seven targets. Nyheim Hines had 34 rushing yards on nine attempts, plus 48 receiving yards on six receptions (eight targets).
In Week 2, the Titans Derrick Henry erupted for 182 rushing yards on 35 carries (three touchdowns), plus six receptions on six targets for 55 more yards.
Alex Mattison stole the show in Week 3 for the Vikings. He posted 112 rushing yards on 26 attempts, plus six receptions on eight targets for 59 yards against the Seahawks in relief of Dalvin Cook.
The 49ers’ Trey Sermon got the nod last week but made no impact receiving. It was all ground game for him, going for 89 rushing yards on 19 attempts.
Now, enter Henderson. NBC’s player prop model predicts Henderson to have 76.2 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions for 28.9 receiving yards (105.1 total yards) plus a touchdown. Well Over his 57.5 rushing yards.
I will ride with Henderson to have a big game on the ground and through the air, as just about every running back before him in 2021 has.
Pick: Darrell Henderson Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
Tyler Higbee O/U 38.5 Receiving Yards vs. Seahawks
Tyler Higbee will be the next tight end on the Seahawks schedule and Seattle has shown they are struggling versus opposing tight ends to start the season.
Higbee has proved to be one of Matthew Stafford‘s most reliable targets, with 15 receptions on 18 targets (83.3% catch rate).
The 49ers’ George Kittle is banged up and managed four receptions for 40 yards on 11 targets in Week 4, while the Vikings’ Tyler Conklin posted seven receptions on eight targets for 70 yards and score in Week 3.
Despite Derrick Henry‘s huge day, the Titans’ MyCole Pruitt went three of three with Ryan Tannehill and added 43 yards on Seattle. Dating back to Week 1, the Colts’ Jack Doyle went three of four for 21 yards in Week 1 with a banged-up Carson Wentz under center.
Higbee should be in for around 40-plus yards in a bounce back game for the Rams. Pruitt, plus a not 100-percent Kittle were able to do this, while Conklin destroyed both the receptions and receiving yards props.
NBC’s player prop model projects him at 39.7 receiving yards on 3.8 receptions and 4.8 targets.
On the season, Higbee is 2-2 to the 38.5 receiving yards prop and 3-1 to his 3.5 receptions prop. Higbee fell three yards short in his previous start of being 3-1 to the Over 38.5.
I like Higbee to hit his Over on Thursday Night Football because he ranks second of all tight ends in snap share (88.8%), fifth in YAC (93 yards, 5.2 per target) and seventh in catch rate (83.3%), per PlayerProfiler.
Higbee has caught four or five passes in three of his four starts and averages 10.1 yards per reception. While his average target distance is only 4.9 yards, he turns that into double the yardage with his YAC ability.
His cushion from the opposing defender has also been 6.4 yards on average per pass plays, which is the ninth-softest of all tight ends, similar to Conklin (6.6) or Kyle Pitts (6.5), while trailing another name on the earlier list, Kittle (7.1).
Bet on Higbee to go over 38.5 receiving yards (-115) up to 41.5.
Once the line moves past 41.5, I would consider his Over 3.5 receptions or a touchdown, as he has five red-zone targets (three receptions) through four games.
Pick: Tyler Higbee Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
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Robert Woods O/U 56.5 Receiving Yards vs. Seahawks
If you have the Seahawks’ defense in fantasy, judging by my article, please do not start them. You’re welcome.
I believe the Robert Woods breakout game is incoming.
Judging by the numbers, Woods is doing nothing wrong. He just simply is not seeing the target share and attention in the offense that he once commanded with Jared Goff. Last season, Woods’ target share was 23.0% compared to 18.7% this season.
However, Woods ranks eighth of all wide receivers with a 91.8% snap share and still ranks outside the top 30 in a majority of wide receiver efficiency, productivity and opportunity stats.
To be honest, it’s not his fault. Cooper Kupp has eaten to start the season, and the Rams have tons of offensive options (as you can tell by my earlier prop and I have another I am waiting on).
However, Sean McVay was quoted as saying, “We just need to get him (Woods) some more opportunities and that starts with me.”
McVay wants to get Woods 'more opportunities' https://t.co/ZnOZofeCdA
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) October 6, 2021
Hey-O! For everyone who has him in fantasy, this is the game.
Luckily for Woods and Kupp, they could both eat against the Seahawks because there will be plenty to go around versus this defense.
Seattle allows the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (1,243), the seventh-most receptions (105) and ninth-highest yards per catch average (11.8). The Seahawks have permitted 11 plays of 20-plus yards through the air, and Woods has a long of 16-20 yards in all four games.
Woods will get 1/3 of his yardage on one catch alone. If Woods has two 15 or 20-yard receptions against Seattle because McVay wants to get him involved, well, we may only need three to four receptions to hit 60 yards.
This is the best matchup on paper for Woods to have the best game of his early season. Woods averages 75.7 yards per game against the Seahawks in his nine career games, so this is well below his career numbers against Seattle.
Woods has averaged at least 12.0 yards per reception in six of nine games versus Seattle, per statmuse. If Woods can have four receptions on that low number -- that’s 48 yards right there and 13.0 is 52.0.
This is just a low number all around versus a bad defense, despite Woods only hitting the Over once in 2021.
Let’s see if McVay backs his words up following a loss and if Woods can take advantage of his opportunities versus this weak Hawks’ defense.
Woods is barely running less routes than Kupp and on the field for almost the same amount of time. Over the past two weeks, Woods led the team in snap count and played 78% or more in three straight. Kupp has finished top two in snap count for four straight weeks.
Both Rams’ receivers should see their share of targets but Woods’ numbers should considerably pick up starting with Seattle on TNF.
If you have some lunch money, Woods at +800 to have the most receiving yards on TNF is something worth throwing a slice of pizza on.
Pick: Robert Woods Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (1.5u)
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